Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CDT FRI OCT  1 2004

.UPDATE...
FOR AVIATION...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE TAF PERIOD...REMAINING IN THE AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN
MOVING SE OUT OF THE REGION. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS EVENING. WIND
SHIFT STILL EXPECTED AROUND MID EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH TEMPO MVFR CIGS
PSBL WITH PRECIP...THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY SATURDAY WITH
DRY...CAA.

FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING BUT
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.         42

&&

.SHORT TERM...
250 PM...
PATTERN MORE INDICATIVE OF FALL TO AFFECT N TX WX NEXT 48 HRS...AS
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTS WITH POSITIVE TILTED UPPER TROUGH HOLDING
OVER WRN CONUS. LEANING MORE WITH THE GFS OVER ETA/NGM ON FRONTAL
TIMING...AMOUNT OF LOW LVL CAA...AND CLOUDS/CONVECTION THROUGH SAT
MORNING PER CURRENT TRENDS. DEW PTS AROUND 65 F SURGING AHEAD OF
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM KCDS-KABI...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NRN TX PANHANDLE ATTM. A FEW STORMS NOW INITIATING OVER WRN HILL
COUNTRY/SW TX...AND NEAR KMWL ATTM. SHOULD CONT TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPAND E/NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND AND SHIFT SWD
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE 70-90 KT UPPER
JET MOVES ENE OVER THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. CHANCE MENTION MOST
OF I-20/NWD THIS EVENING WITH AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM NOT TOTALLY OUT
OF THE QUESTION...AS 500MB FLOW IS AROUND 50 KTS ATTM WITH MLCAPES
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG BY 00Z SAT (SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS). AN
MCS COULD EVOLVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN ZONES
AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS
SOMEWHAT...BUT INCREASES AS WELL...MAINLY 06Z/AFTER. NOT EXPECTING
ANY ISOLD SEVERE SOUTH AS LINEAR MCS MOVES AWAY FROM BETTER SHEAR
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN...THOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN FCST ATTM. POPS MAY BE
ADJUSTED FOR TRENDS AT THE LAST MINUTE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT/RISES TO LEND TO BREEZY
NLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND COOLER TEMPS AS CAA ENSUES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. NOT CONFIDENT CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS MODELS
ADVERTISE...EXCEPT MAY NEAR RED RIVER BY 18Z SAT...AS 850MB TROUGH
REMAINS TO OUR WEST ALLOW LOCAL CHANGE ON LOWER ISENTROPIC SURFACES
TO OCCUR AND NO DOWNGLIDE PRESENT...DESPITE NLY FLOW. BY SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...850MB TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING TO OCCUR WITH A COOL SUN MORNING ON TAP...WITH A SLIGHT
WARM UP SUN AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW POPS MOST ZONES MONDAY AS A S/W MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME UPSLOPE OCCURS OVER OUR W/SWRN ZONES...BUT SHOULDN/T AMOUNT
TO MUCH AS LOW LVLS SHOULD BE DRY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ARRIVES MON NIGHT/EARLY TUES REINFORCING CURRENT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SELY FLOW RETURNING BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH A
SLOW WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  74  51  79 /  40  10   0   0
WACO, TX              62  76  53  82 /  60  30   0   0
PARIS, TX             56  73  48  76 /  40  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            55  72  50  78 /  30  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  73  50  77 /  40  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            59  74  51  79 /  40  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           59  74  50  78 /  40  20   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  76  53  80 /  60  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            64  77  54  82 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE...TO CLEBURNE...TO CANTON. HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH...THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS...TO HILLSBORO...TO CANTON. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...NORTH WINDS MAY GUST TO AS HIGH AS 30 MPH...MAKING AREA
LAKES HAZARDOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...AS
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS...WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

25/05