Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

.AVIATION...
RECENT WV SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING A SLIGHT WWD RETROGRESSION OF UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE REGION BETWEEN
KAQO-KJCT-KERV. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA AND RUC ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BEFORE SLIGHT EWD MOVEMENT IS NOTED LATER IN THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. WITH TRW NOW DEVELOPING ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF BROADER AREA
OF PRECIPITATION...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN CB/VCTS -- WITH TEMPO FOR
TSRA -- FOR METROPLEX AIRPORTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LIGHTNING HAS
DIMINISHED AROUND KACT...BUT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS THIS AREA MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TRW DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER THERE AS WELL.
WILL OPT TO NOT INCLUDE PRECIP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS TROPICAL
NATURE OF SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BECOME CENTERED IN
ONE LOCATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED ON SUNDAY...AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
TRW AT METROPLEX SITES...WITH A CONTINUATION OF MVFR AT KACT.
SURFACE WINDS TO BE LGT/VAR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

65/DD

&&

.UPDATE...
AFTER FURTHER CONSIDERATION...WE WILL BE ADJUSTING ORIENTATION OF
POPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR ALL AREAS. WE WILL ALSO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES.

65/DD

&&

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS TO RAISE POPS THIS MORNING IN THE
SOUTH INTO THE 70 AND 80 PERCENT CATS.  HAVE ALSO RAISED MORNING
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DFW AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
THIS MORNING.  #26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WELL FOCUSED TODAY...AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I CAME CLOSE TO
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT HELD OFF AFTER CONSULTING THE
RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THE MAIN REASONS ARE 1) CURRENT THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OFF OF THE COAST...WHICH MIGHT ROB INLAND AREAS OF SOME OF
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND 2) CONVECTION THAT SHOULD FORM ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS...AND LIKEWISE INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE RETURN INTO NORTH
TEXAS. I DID PUT SOME HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE ZONES FORECASTS FOR
TODAY... MAINLY FROM THE DFW ARE SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE DAY SHIFT
WILL EVALUATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ONCE AGAIN...AFTER DAYBREAK.

THE RAIN SHOULD LET OFF A BIT SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...EXTENSIVE RESIDUAL MOISTURE
...A WEAK BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER...AND EVENTUALLY THE RETURN OF DESTABILIZING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY VERY MILD
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AS THE UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN (SPLIT FLOW
BENEATH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN WESTERN CANADA THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO ALASKA) PERSISTS.  #26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   84  68  85  70 /  60  40  40  30
WACO, TX               83  67  87  70 /  70  40  40  30
PARIS, TX              82  66  85  67 /  40  30  40  40
DENTON, TX             83  65  86  68 /  40  30  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX           83  65  86  68 /  40  30  30  20
DALLAS, TX             84  68  86  70 /  60  40  40  30
TERRELL, TX            82  68  85  69 /  50  30  40  40
CORSICANA, TX          82  69  86  70 /  60  40  50  40
TEMPLE, TX             83  68  87  70 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NOON CDT
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON TOP OF SATURATED
SOIL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE RED RIVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH EARLY EVENING
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO DALLAS AND COOPER.

65/DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 AM     FLASH FLOOD     SALADO                   30.95N  97.52W
06/26/2004                  BELL                TX   911 CNTR

            WATER OVER ROAD DOWNTOWN SALADO, FM 1123 OUTSIDE OF
            TOWN, CHURCH ST SOUTH OF FIRE DEPT...BARRICADES UP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     FLASH FLOOD     3 E THORNTON             31.41N  96.52W
06/26/2004                  LIMESTONE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD FM 1246 3 EAST OF THORNTON...TXDOT CREWS
            CALLED OUT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 AM     FLASH FLOOD     5 E MOODY                31.31N  97.28W
06/26/2004                  MCLENNAN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I35 WATER OVER ROAD MILE MARKER 315 SOUTH OF WACO EAST
            OF MOODY. FM317 FLOODED VARIOUS AREAS MOODY SOUTH TO
            CORYELL COUNTY LINE. IN WACO WIDESPREAD NUISANCE
            FLOODING.