Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UDPATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
942 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND ISSUANCE OF FLOOD
WATCH FOR SAME AREA. SEVERE TRW WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM...FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM.   42

.UPDATE...
757 PM CST...
WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP...TEMP...AND WIND
TRENDS FOR TONIGHT. CURRENT AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHILE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP CURRENTLY LEAVING THE BIG BEND AREA WILL PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.  TEMPERATURES ARE A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO
VEER THEM TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. EVENING SOUNDING DID SHOW GOOD
WARMING IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 670 AND 870 MB. IN ADDITION...THE
CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES...AND ADVECTION IS
FROM A REGION WITH SIMILAR TEMPS...SO WE EXPECT READINGS TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE CLOSE BY DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE ANY PROBLEMS OCCUR. 42

&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WILL END THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07Z...BUT WE WILL STILL BE IFR IN
DRIZZLE...FOG AND LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT
BEGINNING MID MORNING THURSDAY.  59

&&

DISCUSSION...
LATEST REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS/KGRK 88DS SHOWS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL A POWERFUL UPPER JET
MAX OF 120-140 KTS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A PREEXISTING
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA/AVN/RUC IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE RESULTANT SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS /AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR
UVM/ DECREASING RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS THE DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... ALLOWING A COLD SFC HIGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING JUST A BIT
FOR THIS FORECAST...AS CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL OFFSET SOME OF
THE COLD ADVECTION TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S. HOWEVER...THE SAME CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AND WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH ONLY VERY LITTLE DIURNAL RISE ANTICIPATED. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS IS NOW
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DESPITE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY...STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD TEXAS. THUS...WILL UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN ONE OF
THE COLDEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR SO FAR FOR MOST SPOTS. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AS SFC PRESSURES FALL IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES... WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN
THE FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY...
AS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGING THIS FEATURE FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   41  55  36  39 /  90   0   0   0
WACO, TX               44  62  39  42 /  90   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              38  50  33  36 /  90  20   0   0
DENTON, TX             40  53  34  37 /  90   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX           39  53  34  37 /  90   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX             41  55  36  39 /  90   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            41  56  37  39 /  90  20   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          43  60  39  41 /  90  20   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             45  64  40  43 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

65/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
405 PM CST WED FEB 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.