Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.UPDATE...
WE WILL BE UPDATING THE ZFPFTW AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS TO ADD SEVERE
TSTM WATCH #455 AND REMOVE SEVERE TSTM WATCH #450. CURRENT
REFLECTIVITY AND VELOCITY DATA FROM KDYX SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF TRW
EXTENDING FROM KDYS-45 W KRPH-40 SW KF05...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS NW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SE...AND THINK THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS FOR
THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY. OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES
ATTM.

65/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED UP NICELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE DRY
LINE. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LOSE SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY...AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THUS EVEN THOUGH THE STORMS HAVE FORMED A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY/S STORMS...WE MAY STILL SEE SOME STORMS
APPROACH THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK THEIR
WAY INTO THE WACO AREA AFTER 07Z...AND MAYBE INTO METROPLEX AFTER
09Z. TIMING IS STILL IN THE AIR...BUT WILL PLACE A TEMPO OF TS AFTER
07-08Z. WILL KEEP SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 15Z...WITH CEILING
IMPROVING THEREAFTER.   #58

&&

.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS EVENING.  LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TO WEAKEN THE CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
REGION.  INITIALLY...STORMS SHOULD FORM IN WEST TEXAS ON THE DRY
LINE AND PROPAGATE EAST TO NORTHEAST. STORM SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE
SHORT WAVE OVERNIGHT.  HIGH INSTABILITIES AND WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STORMS.  WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EAST.
STORMS SHOULD END IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SOME MAJOR CHANGES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY ALL MODELS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD WHILE A
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A TROPICAL LOW/DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME MODEL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY
THROUGH TROUGH FRIDAY.  INITIALLY...WE WILL KEEP THE HIGHS POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A SLOW TRANSITION NORTHEAST THROUGH WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS DUE
TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT AND TROPICAL ORIGIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS
OFTEN HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS IN A
WEAK FLOW REGIME...THEREFORE...PINPOINTING RAIN AREAS IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT.  WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH OF THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS HEAVY RAIN COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN MANY
NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   75  92  75  94 /  40  10  10  10
WACO, TX               75  94  75  95 /  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX              74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX             74  92  74  93 /  40  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX           74  92  74  93 /  40  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX             75  92  75  94 /  40  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX            74  93  74  94 /  20  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX          75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX             75  95  75  95 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
908 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

TXZ115>117-129>132-141-130800-
COMANCHE-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-PALO PINTO-PARKER-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-
908 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #455 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  COMANCHE        EASTLAND        ERATH           HOOD
  PALO PINTO      PARKER          SOMERVELL       STEPHENS