Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

.AVIATION...

...SQUALL LINE TO MOVE ACROSS KDFW TRACON 00-03Z...

AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS HIGHLY LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR
KDFW/KDAL AIRPORTS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE.

SQUALL LINE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEARING RED RIVER VALLEY AT 23Z AND
WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 06Z. IT WILL
REACH THE NORTHERN KDFW TRACON SHORT OF 00Z...AND INTO
KDFW...KFTW...KDAL AIRPORTS AROUND 0030Z.  SQUALL GUSTS TO 45KTS ARE
EXPECTED FOLLOW BY +TSRA THROUGH 02Z.  THIS SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
TO MARCH THROUGH KACT AIRPORT 03-05Z.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX (MCS) TO MOVE OUT
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OR HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AIRPORTS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 11-16Z.  75

&&

.DISCUSSION...
239 PM.
BEST REASONING ATTM IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL OK WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHTS STORMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THAT OUTFLOW IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40
MPH INTO 70+ DEWPOINTS. SHOULD IT CONTINUE AT THAT SPEED IT WILL
MOVE TO THE RED RIVER AROUND 6 PM...METROPLEX AROUND 8 PM AND WACO
AROUND 10 BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. MORE
STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN COLORADO...WILL ALSO MOVE SE
OVERNIGHT BUT BELIEVE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS EVENING STORMS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH
CLOUD COVER. MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY BE INCREASED SHOULD ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. FARTHER OUT...WEAK RIDGE SLIDES EAST
DURING THE WEEKEND CHANGING FLOW ALOFT FROM WNW TO W TO SW BY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL. 82
&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMP/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   68  83  68  88 /  70  30   0  20
WACO, TX               69  84  69  89 /  70  30   0  20
PARIS, TX              68  81  67  86 /  70  20   0  20
DENTON, TX             67  83  68  88 /  70  30   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           68  82  67  87 /  70  20   0  20
DALLAS, TX             68  82  68  87 /  70  30   0  20
TERRELL, TX            69  82  67  87 /  70  20   0  20
CORSICANA, TX          69  82  68  87 /  70  30   0  20
TEMPLE, TX             69  84  69  89 /  70  50   0  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
405 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE.

AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
OUT OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST
TEXAS IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY...
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON NORTH TEXAS WEATHER TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE
RED RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION.  LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN 5 AND
8 PM AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 8 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

TXZ100>107-115>123-129>135-141-143>148-159-161-162-030500-
ANDERSON-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-DALLAS-DELTA-DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-
ERATH-FREESTONE-HAMILTON-HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-
JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-NAVARRO-PALO
PINTO-PARKER-RAINS-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN
ZANDT-WISE-YOUNG-
553 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #387 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  ANDERSON        BOSQUE          COLLIN          COMANCHE
  DALLAS          DELTA           DENTON          EASTLAND
  ELLIS           ERATH           FREESTONE       HAMILTON
  HENDERSON       HILL            HOOD            HOPKINS
  HUNT            JACK            JOHNSON         KAUFMAN
  LEON            LIMESTONE       MCLENNAN        NAVARRO
  PALO PINTO      PARKER          RAINS           ROCKWALL
  SOMERVELL       STEPHENS        TARRANT         VAN ZANDT
  WISE            YOUNG

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