Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TSTRMS HAVE BEGUN IN THE 100+ DEGREE AIR ALONG THE DRY LINE AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE REGION...AND MANY WILL BECOME SEVERE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR. FORECAST MAY BE UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIOUS WATCH BOXES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TSTRMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING SYSTEM FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THAT SYSTEM TOO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IN ALL OF
THESE WEATHER EVENTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODS FROM TRAINING ECHOS. IN THE EXTENDED
VIEW...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE STATE AND NOW KEEPS A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE UNTIL
LATE IN THE FORECAST WHERE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
THAT TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  88  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
WACO, TX               71  92  73  88 /  30   0  20  20
PARIS, TX              68  85  70  82 /  50  30  50  40
DENTON, TX             69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX           69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
DALLAS, TX             70  89  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
TERRELL, TX            70  89  71  84 /  30   0  50  30
CORSICANA, TX          71  90  73  86 /  30   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX             71  93  74  89 /  30   0  20  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A
BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THESE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING AREAS WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY WEST OF A BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE
LINE BEFORE 8 PM.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 7 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
828 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL            SALESVILLE               32.91N  98.09W
06/01/2004  1.75 INCH       PALO PINTO          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL IN SALESVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
831 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0829 PM     TSTM WND DMG    2 E WEATHERFORD          32.76N  97.74W
06/01/2004                  PARKER              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BUILDING DAMAGE EAST OF WEATHERFORD ON HIGHWAY 180

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL            7 W NEWCASTLE            33.19N  98.87W
06/01/2004  2.50 INCH       YOUNG               TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TENNIS BALL HAIL 7 WEST OF NEWCASTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
854 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     TSTM WND GST    FORT WORTH               32.75N  97.34W
06/01/2004  69 MPH          TARRANT             TX   NWS OFFICE

            RECORDED 69 MPH GUST AT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
            IN FORT WORTH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
912 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     TORNADO         ARLINGTON                32.69N  97.13W
06/01/2004                  TARRANT             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO IN SOUTHWEST ARLINGTON NEAR INTERSTATE 20 AND
            287

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL            BURLESON                 32.53N  97.33W
06/01/2004  1.00 INCH       JOHNSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BURLESON