Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 20Z...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED EAST OF A SHERMAN...TO MINERAL
WELLS...TO COLEMAN LINE. THE 18Z FWD RAOB INDICATED THAT A STUBBORN
CAP REMAINED IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING THIS AFTERNOON
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THE METROPLEX ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE HIGH CAPES...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EAST
AHEAD OF  THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...
AND SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...THIS FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
DIFFERENCE FOR THE HIGHS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  HAVE KEPT
LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   66  92  64  95 /  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX               68  94  66  96 /  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX              65  88  64  91 /  40  10  10  20
DENTON, TX             65  91  64  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX           66  91  64  94 /  10  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX             66  92  65  95 /  20  10  10  20
TERRELL, TX            67  92  66  93 /  20  20  10  20
CORSICANA, TX          69  92  68  94 /  20  20  10  20
TEMPLE, TX             68  95  67  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES TXC085...
TXC113...TXC119...TXC147...TXC223...TXC231...TXC257...TXC277...
TXC379...TXC397...TXC467.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
EAST OF A BONHAM TO WAXAHACHIE LINE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHEAST OF A WAXAHACHIE...TO LAMPASAS
LINE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ALONG A BONHAM...TO
DALLAS...TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

A CAP OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE CAP HAS BEEN STRONGER...BUT
A FEW STORMS MAY MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH IT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY DEVELOP BEFORE SUNSET.
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A PARIS TO CORSICANA TO
CAMERON LINE ON MEMORIAL DAY. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...AND GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
TUESDAY...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
EAST OF A BONHAM...TO WAXAHACHIE LINE. LIMITED ACTIVATION MAY
BE NEEDED THIS EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A WAXAHACHIE....TO
LAMPASAS LINE IF STORMS THERE DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH.

58

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446PM      HAIL            HONEY GROVE              33.58N  95.91W
05/30/2004  1.00 INCH       FANNIN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

TXZ105-121>123-302315-
HUNT-KAUFMAN-RAINS-VAN ZANDT-
517 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 518 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUINLAN...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TERRELL...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

EMORY...QUINLAN...WEST TAWAKONI AND BOATERS ON LAKE TAWAKONI ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

07/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
527 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

TXZ144-145-302330-
BOSQUE-HILL-
527 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 527 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MERIDIAN...OR 12
MILES NORTH OF CLIFTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

CLIFTON...HILLSBORO...HUBBARD...ITASCA...MERIDIAN AND WHITNEY ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

HALF-INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM THIS STORM. CONDITIONS FAVOR THIS STORM TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY...AND SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 630
PM CDT.

07/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     HAIL            BROOKSTON                33.62N  95.70W
05/30/2004                  LAMAR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR BROOKSTON