Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SHRA/TSRA
HAVE BEEN GOING ON ACROSS W TEXAS MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WHILE
THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE
PAST HOUR...THEY ARE ALSO WORKING ACROSS A RELATIVELY WORKED OVER
AIR MASS...AS COMPARED TO A STRONGLY CAPPED AREA WITH GOOD
INSOLATION. VAPOR CHANNEL CONTINUES TO SHOW H5 PVA WORKING SLOWLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NM...WHILE THE DRY LINE WAS ROUGHLY BETWEEN KCDS AND
KSPS SWWD TO NEAR KABI. WE WILL OPT TO KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL...GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE H5
SHORT WAVE AND THE FORECAST CAPE...JUST CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW STORMS. RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY DECENT SO
WILL GO WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS NW TONIGHT. WILL BLEND MOS NUMBERS
AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

SHORTWAVE TO WORK EAST OF N TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING AND SAT LOOKS TO
BE DRY. CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO N
TEXAS ON SUNDAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. STILL COULD SEE SOME STORMS WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THEN. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   71  88  72  88 /  70  10  10  10
WACO, TX               72  91  72  91 /  50  10  10  10
PARIS, TX              69  86  70  87 /  70  40  20  10
DENTON, TX             69  87  71  88 /  80  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX           70  87  71  88 /  70  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX             71  88  72  89 /  60  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX            71  88  72  89 /  50  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX          72  90  71  90 /  50   0  10  10
TEMPLE, TX             72  93  71  91 /  50  10  10  10
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

TXZ100-101-115-116-129-130-141-280200-
COMANCHE-EASTLAND-ERATH-JACK-PALO PINTO-STEPHENS-YOUNG-
259 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  COMANCHE        EASTLAND        ERATH           JACK
  PALO PINTO      STEPHENS        YOUNG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

TXZ100-101-272315-
JACK-YOUNG-
510 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 510 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MURRAY...OR 13 MILES WEST
OF GRAHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

CUNDIFF...JEAN...JERMYN AND LOVING ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG    5 N EASTLAND             32.47N  98.82W
05/27/2004                  EASTLAND            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TELEPHONE POLE KNOCKED DOWN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

TXZ091>095-102>107-117>123-131>135-142>146-280400-
BOSQUE-COLLIN-COOKE-DALLAS-DELTA-DENTON-ELLIS-FANNIN-GRAYSON-
HAMILTON-HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-
MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PARKER-RAINS-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-TARRANT-VAN
ZANDT-WISE-
542 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...

  BOSQUE          COLLIN          COOKE           DALLAS
  DELTA           DENTON          ELLIS           FANNIN
  GRAYSON         HAMILTON        HENDERSON       HILL
  HOOD            HOPKINS         HUNT            JOHNSON
  KAUFMAN         LAMAR           MILLS           MONTAGUE
  NAVARRO         PARKER          RAINS           ROCKWALL
  SOMERVELL       TARRANT         VAN ZANDT       WISE

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