Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
915 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES TO UP POPS AREAWIDE AND TO ADD TORNADO WATCH FOR MILAM
AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...PER COORDINATION WITH SPC. HOWEVER...
ONGOING AND FUTURE FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR THREAT FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY...WITH TRAINING TORRENTIAL RAINS THERE. IF THIS
MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DOES NOT HOSE THE ENVIRONMENT TOO
MUCH...THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY SET UP ADDITIONAL MAJOR
PROBLEMS IN AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINS THIS
MORNING. STAY TUNED. 30/SS
&&

.AVIATION...
645 AM CDT
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
CEILINGS. HOWEVER...SOME TEMPO THUNDER IN WACO WILL BE NECESSARY
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIFT
TO NEAR OR ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND MIDDAY.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH TO WEAKEN ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
JET DECREASES...THEREFORE WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER UNTIL THIS
EVENING (AROUND 2Z) WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.  WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORMS TO THE
SOUTH FOR POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE METROPLEX TAF SITES LATER THIS
MORNING AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.   FROPA WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION EXPECTED AND MASKING BY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SO WILL KEEP NORTH WIND SHIFT AROUND 6 Z AT THE
METROPLEX SITES AND 8 Z AT WACO.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND END JUST BEFORE BEFORE SUNRISE.  79
&&

.DISCUSSION...
445 AM CDT
SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW TRAVERSING SE TEXAS. HEALTHY STORMS SKIRTING SE
CWA...NECESSITATING LIKELY POPS THERE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...
MORNING SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET.

FRONT NOW INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA...WILL APPROACH
NW CWA BY EARLY EVENING. DRYLINE CURRENTLY FURTHER EAST THAN WED
MORNING...THOUGH WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDCOVER INHIBITING MIXING. EXPECT DRYLINE CONVECTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACHING FRONT. MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS
WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT SOME DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY WORK INTO
NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AREA...WHERE
TIMING OF INITIAL CONVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS DESPITE MINIMAL SPEED SHEAR.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE AT A PRIME NEAR FROPA...BUT TIMING WILL BE
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF CWA. HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN WITH
PREFRONTAL TRAINING...BUT EXPECT DECENT MOTION OF BOTH INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND FRONT ITSELF. HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT INCLUDE ANY SEVERE OR
HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS TIME.

TAPERING POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE FRIDAY. COOL MORNING SETTING UP
SATURDAY AS LIGHT WINDS COINCIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS IN THE
50S LIKELY N HALF OF CWA. WITH QUICK RETURN TO S/SE SFC FLOW...
EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND...WITH MILD/WARM AFTERNOONS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. NORTH TEXAS LOOKS TO HAVE A PLEASANT SUNNY SPRING
WEEKEND.

KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTH FOR SUNDAY...BUT NEXT WEEK LOOKS
RAINFREE WITH WEAK RIDGING CONTROLLING THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. 25
&&

.445 AM CDT PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   84  65  75  58 /  40  70  30  10
WACO, TX               84  68  78  61 /  50  70  60  20
PARIS, TX              82  66  75  58 /  50  70  50  10
DENTON, TX             83  65  74  57 /  50  70  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX           83  65  74  57 /  50  70  30  10
DALLAS, TX             84  66  75  59 /  40  70  30  10
TERRELL, TX            82  67  77  60 /  50  70  50  10
CORSICANA, TX          82  69  78  63 /  60  70  60  20
TEMPLE, TX             84  69  78  62 /  50  70  60  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
921 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF A TEMPLE...WACO...FAIRFIELD LINE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT THREAT OF A FEW SHORT LIVED TORNADOES THROUGH ABOUT 1030
AM...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MILAM AND ROBERTSON
COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER TODAY...AS A COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THESE STORMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A
LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS MAY HAVE
A DELAYING EFFECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE FRONTAL STORMS...UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST OF A CANTON...HILLSBORO... GOLDTHWAITE LINE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS MORNING FOR THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTH.  MOREOVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH TEXAS AREA.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
829 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     FLASH FLOOD     7 SW LOTT                31.13N  97.12W
05/13/2004                  FALLS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD ON FM 320 NEAR WESTPHALIA AND WEST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
855 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ162-175-131415-
LEON-ROBERTSON-
855 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 855 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRANKLIN IN EASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF WHEELOCK...WEALTHY...AND FLYNN WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 AM. RESIDENTS OF THESE
AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PRACTICE
LIGHTNING SAFETY RULES. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROBERTSON AND WESTERN LEON COUNTIES THIS
MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     FLASH FLOOD     1 NW HEARNE              30.89N  96.61W
05/13/2004                  ROBERTSON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ON HWY 6 AND FARM ROADS ACROSS COUNTY