Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 281143
FFSFTW
TXC257-467-281300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR VAN ZANDT AND KAUFMAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF KAUFMAN AND VAN ZANDT 
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES ISOLATED 
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT. KNOW YOUR
LOCATION IN RELATION TO STREAMS...RIVERS OR CREEKS THAT CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH RISING WATER.
DO NOT CROSS AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING...EVEN ON FOOT. RAPIDLY
FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY SWEEP YOU OFF YOUR FEET.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE 
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES. 
TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3238 9642 3253 9650 3281 9650 3283 9601
          3269 9561 3248 9560 3237 9548

$$

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000 
WGUS74 KFWD 281254
FFSFTW
TXC257-467-281315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR VAN ZANDT AND KAUFMAN COUNTIES WILL 
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 800 AM CDT...

WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED IN 
THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ISSUES 
WITH HIGH WATER AND OTHER FLOOD PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE...WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE 
CAUTION ON THE MORNING COMMUTE. KNOW YOUR LOCATION IN RELATION TO 
STREAMS...RIVERS OR CREEKS THAT CAN BECOME KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. 
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH HIGH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR 
VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE 
BARRICADES. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3238 9642 3253 9650 3281 9650 3283 9601
          3269 9561 3248 9560 3237 9548

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
443 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

SINCE I BECAME INVOLVED IN FILLING OUT THE GRIDED DATA AND
DEVELOPING THE FORECAST...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT...WHICH HAS ESSENTIALLY BECOME A WIND SHIFT LINE.
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN DFW METROPLEX EASTWARD. WE
LIKELY WILL UPDATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND BEEF UP THE POPS
IN THAT AREA FOR THIS MORNING (WE ALREADY HAD 60% IN THAT AREA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING FURTHER STORM FORMATION WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING).

THERE IS A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND WE HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
IN THESE AREAS (THAN IN THE NORTH)..ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS COVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES.

CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUESDAY...BUT WE HAVE LOWERED/KEEP THEM IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS FOCUSING BOUNDARIES AND
SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE VALUES WEAKEN. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT FRIDAY RESULT IN A UPSURGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THAT FAR INTO THE
FUTURE...BUT THE GFS PAINTS VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH DOUBLE DIGIT LIFTED INDICES. THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY...AND WE HAVE MOVED THE
HIGHER POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. NORTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONT BECOMES ORIENTED
NNW TO SSE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE WE HAVE PLACED THE
HIGHEST POPS ON SUNDAY.

THUS...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE...AT LEAST THROUGH
JULY 4TH. THERE COULD BE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BECOME ESTABLISHED EACH DAY RENDER AN EXTENDED FORECAST
OF THIS SORT (LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL) IMPOSSIBLE AT THE CURRENT
TIME. THERE COULD EVEN BE A THREAT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WIND STORMS IF
THE GFS HAS THE RIGHT IDEA ABOUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO MOS TEMPS AND POPS...MAINLY TAKING
MINI ENSEMBLE AVERAGES OF THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE FIGURES.  #26
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   86  70  87  70 /  50  30  40  20
WACO, TX   87  70  89  70 /  50  40  40  20
PARIS, TX   85  70  86  70 /  40  20  40  20
DENTON, TX   86  68  86  69 /  40  20  40  20
MCKINNEY, TX   85  69  86  69 /  40  20  40  20
DALLAS, TX   86  69  87  70 /  50  30  40  20
TERRELL, TX   86  71  86  71 /  60  30  40  20
CORSICANA, TX   86  72  88  71 /  60  30  40  20
TEMPLE, TX   88  71  90  71 /  50  40  40  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR A BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS...ANY HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAY QUICKLY RESULT IN FLOODING ISSUES IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCES WILL LINGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANCES
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED FOR REPORTS OF HIGH
WATER.

25