Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 252040
FFSFTW
TXC121-252100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY WILL 
EXPIRE AT 345 PM CDT...

AT 340 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED SOUTH OUT OF DENTON COUNTY. THUS THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3319 9687 3302 9686 3301 9729 3321 9712

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1205 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

.AVIATION AND PUBLIC UPDATES...
KFWS 88D DATA INDICATING THAT TRW ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KDFW TRACON. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF
MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW PATTERNS...AND VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AT A SINGLE LOCATION. THUS...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN CB/VCTS
FOR ALL FOUR SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
WITH CONVECTION ALSO EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WE WILL NOT
MENTION IT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE TAF. VIS SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWING SEVERAL DECKS OF CU/ACCAS...AND CIRRUS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...AND GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN SCT/VFR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
ON SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER DECKS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A LONGER
DURATION AT KACT. SLIGHT UPSLOPE E/SE COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS.

CONCERNING UPDATES TO THE STATE FORECAST PRODUCTS...WE WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED CLOSE TO DIFFUSE BNDRY ACROSS
NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES...WITH LOW CHANCES IN THE EAST.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW/TROF NOW OVER TEXAS WILL LINGER FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE FOR A WEEK. CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT JUST WHERE AND HOW IT WILL MOVE...MOSTLY IT WILL JUST SWASH
AROUND OVER THE STATE MOVING IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSES TRAVELING
AROUND IT. EARLIER EVENING I/R OVERLAYED WITH LIGHTNING SHOWED THIS
PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES QUITE WELL...WITH NORTH TEXAS IN THE QUIETER
CENTER.

THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
CURRENTLY...WHAT LOOKS TO HAPPEN IS THAT ON SATURDAY I EXPECT
ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST AND THEN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LESS
LIKELY IN THE NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY THE OLD BOUNDARY NOW IN SOUTH
TEXAS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT AND SO SUNDAY HAS THE HIGHEST POPS WITH MONDAY ALSO LOOKING
FAIRLY WET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT
OF THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. BOUNDARY THEN
PROGGED TO LINGER IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY SO
I PUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN THAT THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE VERY
WELL. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES AS THE 12Z RUNS COME IN LATER TODAY.
84
&&

DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX    90  70  88  70 /  20  20  20  30
WACO, TX                90  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  50
PARIS, TX               87  68  85  67 /  20  20  20  30
DENTON, TX              90  69  88  70 /  20  20  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX            90  70  89  70 /  20  20  20  30
DALLAS, TX              90  71  88  70 /  20  20  20  30
TERRELL, TX             89  70  88  71 /  30  30  30  50
CORSICANA, TX           89  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  50
TEMPLE, TX              89  71  88  72 /  30  30  30  50
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-252100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
TO 60 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FRONT NEAR ABILENE...TO JACKSBORO...TO
GAINESVILLE...ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE
REGION. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY SUNSET
AS HEATING IS LOST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL
INTERACT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT AND A MOIST
...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

05/