Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000
WGUS74 KFWD 170515
FFSFWD
TXC133-429-170530-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CANCELED FOR STEPHENS AND EASTLAND 
COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR STEPHENS AND EASTLAND 
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM HAS BEEN CANCELED.

AT 1105 PM...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE HEAVY RAIN HAD 
RAPIDLY DISSIPATED AND ONLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WAS 
FALLING. 

ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 

LAT...LON 3295 9902 3219 9902 3234 9865 3287 9870

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WE WILL MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...OTHER
THAN TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS. AREA OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
KCPT/KCRS/KACT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RW/EMBEDDED TRW EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CIGS CURRENTLY NOTED AT KDFW/KDAL SHOULD DECREASE
TO AT LEAST MVFR CRITERIA AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS...AND REMAIN
MVFR/IFR FOR REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SE AT 8-12 KTS.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOW STARTING TO OPEN UP INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO W TX.  VERY DIVERGENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER TX...WITH AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN.  70+ DEWPOINTS ARE LOCATED IN THE GULF AND UPPER 60S
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA.  OVERALL...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS MAKES SENSE WITH THE WEAKENING
EXPECTED.  THE FARTHER NORTHWARD TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS
AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS.  THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  A
STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW WEST OF DEL RIO WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST.  EXPECT THIS TO BE THE TIME FRAME WHERE
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OVER THE W AND SW CWA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA AND LATER SHIFTS WILL EXPAND THIS
WATCH EASTWARD FOR TOMORROW.  UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-20...GREATER DISPLACEMENT FROM BEST INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL RATES MAY BE LOW ENOUGH THAT FLOODING MAY NOT
BE A PROBLEM.  STORM TOTALS IN THE LAMPASAS...WACO...TEMPLE...AND
CAMERON AREAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST...AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.  FINALLY...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF ISO SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT-WED MORNING...BUT
LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR FURTHER BEFORE WE ADD MENTION TO THE FCST.

WILL CLEAR RAIN OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY SLOT
WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY.  SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH
WARMER GUIDANCE FRI-SAT FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.  STILL FORECASTING A STRONG FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.  TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL...AND WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AS SOME MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/ENERGY DOES NOT CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL MON. TR/92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  68  61  71 /  90 100  70  30
WACO, TX              64  69  61  73 / 100 100  70  30
PARIS, TX             60  69  59  68 /  40  60  60  60
DENTON, TX            62  68  60  70 /  90 100  70  30
MCKINNEY, TX          64  68  61  70 /  80 100  70  50
DALLAS, TX            63  68  61  71 /  90 100  70  30
TERRELL, TX           64  69  61  70 /  70  90  70  50
CORSICANA, TX         63  72  61  73 /  80 100  80  40
TEMPLE, TX            64  70  60  73 / 100 100  70  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX....FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF A CAMERON TO WACO TO
WEATHERFORD TO JACKSBORO LINE THROUGH 6 AM.

&&

92

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
339 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
THREE INCH AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.  THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL EASE BUT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE
WEST TONIGHT.

42