Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
848 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF TSTRMS FIRED JUST EAST OF CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN...NOW DEVELOPMENT SHOWING JUST SOUTH OF IDA COUNTY...CLOSE TO
WARM FRONT.  WEST TO EAST WARM FRONT FROM NEAR KODX IN EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NEAR KOFK TO JUST SOUTH OF KSUX TO NORTH OF KEBS IN
CENTRAL IA AT 01Z.  EXPECT WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH TO BE NEAR
NORTHERN PART OF FSD CWA BY 12Z.  AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. STILL EXPECT TSTRMS TO FIRE NEAR WARM FRONT AS
IT PUSHES NORTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER
TONIGHT.  BEST ACTIVITY MAY WELL END UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
CWA TOWARD MORNING...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
JUST ABOUT ANYWAY ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT AND LLJ BECOME
MORE ACTIVE.

MINOR CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS...AND ZONES IN GENERALLY GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME.  WILL WORDSMITH THE ZFP BUT MAJOR CHANGES NOT EXPECTED.
STILL LOOKS VERY WARM SUNDAY...WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE PART OF CWA.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WX WATCH SUN ZONES 040-055-056-060>062-065>067-068-071.
MN...FIRE WX WATCH SUN ZONES 071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FIRE WX WATCH SUN ZONES 001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FIRE WX WATCH SUN ZONES 013-014.

&&

HARMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1032 AM CDT SAT APR 17 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-181200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH A FEW SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.

THE VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF VERY WARM AIR SHOULD
ALSO BRING AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 9 PM CDT...

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.