Severe Thunderstorm Warning 476, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD ... CORRECTION OF DATE
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
BAND OF TS HAS SET UP NORTH OF THE H9-H85 BOUNDARY IN A NW TO SE
ORIENTATION. IT EXTENDS FM NW SD TO CNTRL IA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST
META DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THIS BNDRY IS LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR
NOW...THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE CRNT SITUATION MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH
THRU ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z THIS MRNG. STRONG ERLY FETCH OF LOW LVL AIR IS
FEEDING INTO THE WRN SD ACTIVITY...WITH THE LOW LVL JET ABOUT 35
KTS. AGREE WITH SPC THAT WHEN LOOKING AT THE H9 STREAMLINES...FLOW
ACTUALLY DIVERGES CLOSE TO THE NEB BORDER. SINCE WERE N OF THE LOW
LVL BNDRY...ABUNDANT STRATUS IS FORMING UNDER THE INVERSION
THROUGHOUT THE CWFA...WITH AREAS OF FOG ON THE UPSLOPE SIDE OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE IN SW MN AND NW IA. NOT GOING TO SPLIT HAIRS WITH THE
FOG AND WITH THE ERLY FLOW CONTINUING...WORDED THE ENTIRE CWA EITHER
PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG THIS MRNG. WILL KEEP THE BAND OF SCT TS GOING
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN CWA THRU 15Z...WITH ISOLD ELSEWHERE. FOR THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...WAVE CRNTLY SHOWN ON THE WV IMAGERY IN THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...IS FCST TO MOV INTO THE AREA LATE TDAY SETTING
UP WHAT COULD BE A FAIR AMNT OF SHRA/TS ARND. NGM/ETA DEPICT THE
H9-H85 BNDRY STAYING PUT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE
GFS LIFTING THE WHOLE NWD. NOT BUYING THE GFS SOLN IN THAT WITH THE
CRNT ROUND OF CONVECTION...THOUGHTS ARE THAT NMRS OUTFLOW WL NOT
ALLOW THE BNDRY TO LIFT NWD. THEREFORE HIGHS WL BE HINDERED TDAY
ALSO...BUT REMAINING HUMID. AND KSUX MAY APPROACH 90 AS THEY ARE THE
CLOSEST TO THE LOW LVL BNDRY...BUT COOLER ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THE
HIGH MSTR FEED CONTINUING AND ABUNDANT LIFT...SCT TS IS WARRANTED
LATER THIS AFTN CWA WIDE...WITH LIKELY POPS GOING MANY AREAS TNGT.
OPTED TO GO ONLY SCT POPS IN THE CORNERS TNGT...ARND THE MARSHALL
AND CHAMBERLAIN VICINITIES. MARSHALL LOOKS TO BE GETTING TOO FAR
NORTH OF THE BNDRY AND DEEPER INTO THE DRIER NE FLOW OF AIR.
CHAMBERLAIN IS DEEPER INTO THE OVERALL NWRLY WRAP ARND FLOW. FOR SVR
TS CHANCES LATER TDAY AND TNGT...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL AS BUOYANCY AND DEEP LYR SPEED SHEAR. SOME
INSTABILITY DOES EXIST AS THE MID LVLS BEGIN TO COOL...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLD HAILERS. BUT OVERALL IVE NEVER BEEN REAL
IMPRESSED ABOUT SVR CHCS WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW THRU 2 KM OUT OF THE
EAST. HOWEVER IF THE GFS WOULD HAPPEN TO PAN OUT IN LIFTING THE LOW
LVL BNDRY NWD...THEN SVR CHCS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE MUCH GREATER...BUT
NOT PLAYING THAT CARD RIGHT NOW.

ON WED...ETA KEEPS A VORT FILAMENT IN A NW TO SE ORIENTATION
BISECTING THE CWA. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS ARND...-SHRA MAY LINGER NEAR
THIS VORT FILAMENT AND DREW GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. CLOUDS FCST TO CLEAR
OUT OF THE CWA WED NIGHT. LOWERED LOWS A FAIR AMNT FOR WED NIGHT AND
THUR NIGHT...WITH CRNT FCST H85 TEMPS ON THE MODELS...AND A MAJOR
CANADIAN SFC HIGH OOZING DOWN FM CANADA. MSTR FETCH EXISTS JUST WEST
OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH...WITH CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY COUNTY ON THE EDGE. BUT DO NOT
BELIEVE THE SW CWA WILL SEE ENUF CLOUDS TO AFFECT TEMPS ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER. WED AND THUR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID IN
THE CWA THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING.

DID NOT LOOK AT THE EXTENDED WITH CRNT WX GOING ON.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

MJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
450 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-041200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
450 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
A HURON TO PLATTE SOUTH DAKOTA LINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL UP TO
ONE AND A QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION...SOME DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST IOWA...FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE STRONGEST
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.

WIND AND FOG...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
WEST
OF A HURON TO PLATTE SOUTH DAKOTA LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL
AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.