Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
130 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN SASK AND NORTHERN MONTANA...WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES. AT 700 MB +13 C
ISOTHERM WAS LOCATED FM NW SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT
850 MB COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH A WARM FRONT ALONG THE MO RIVER.

FORECAST...MAIN SHORT TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES. AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MONTANA TOPS
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS EVENING...ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND AMPLIFY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. CONVECTION LAST NIGHT PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR K9V9 TO KYKN TO KSUX. ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000 J/KG. STRONG FORCING NEAR TRIPLE POINT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INITIATION POINT OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND WITH COOLING MID LVL TMPS AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 30 PROMOTING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF
SUPERCELLS CAN TURN SOUTHEAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAY HAVE
TO WORRY ABOUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO BUT THIS IS A REMOTE CHANCE.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS THIS EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY...MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY FROM SOUTHWEST SD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ISENTROPIC
LIFT ON THE 310 K SURFACE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST FA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. GFS INDICATES STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING..BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. NEVERTHELESS...GOING
FORECAST HAS POPS GOING AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...BUT A WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP
NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
INCREASES HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1055 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-131200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1050 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG
AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON SOUTH DAKOTA TO WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA
LINE...WHERE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
A LITTLE COOLER. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 65 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER NOON CDT...ALONG AND NEAR
A LINE FROM HURON
SOUTH DAKOTA TO MARSHALL MINNESOTA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS THEN
POSSIBLE AFTER 400
PM CDT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
144 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             7 N CHAMBERLAIN         43.91N 99.32W
07/12/2004  1.00 INCH        BRULE              SD   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
241 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HAIL             13 S CHAMBERLAIN        43.62N 99.32W
07/12/2004  0.75 INCH        BRULE              SD   PUBLIC

&&

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
315 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             4 S PUKWANA             43.72N 99.18W
07/12/2004  1.00 INCH        BRULE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM     HAIL             PLATTE                  43.39N 98.84W
07/12/2004  0.88 INCH        CHARLES MIX        SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CPJ