Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONTS TO MOVE EWD ACRS IA ATTM WITH CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY
BREAKING UP ACRS ERN CWA. ANOTHER SFC FNT IS SAGGING SEWD ACRS CWA
AND WL CONT TO MOVLE SLOWLY SEWD ACRS CWA DURG NITE. A FEW TRW HAVE
FIRED UP NR THIS BNDRY ACRS FAR NRN CWA IN VCNTY OF WEAK S/W. CUD
SEE AN ISOLD SVR STORM FAR N EARLY THIS EVE DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT
CREATING SOME INSTABIL. MAIN THREAT WUD BE SMALL HAIL. RAIN COOLED
AIR FURTHER SE IN CWA WL PBLY HINDER DVLPMT BUT WL KEEP SLIGHT CHC
IN ALONG I90 THIS EVE. ANOTHER S/W WL MOVE EWD ACRS NEB OVR NIGHT
AND CUD SKIM SRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WL BRING A CHC INTO FAR SRN
CWA LATER TONIGHT. WITH WEAK BDRY OVR SRN CWA AND PLENTY OF
LLM...AND LGT WNDS...AREAS OF FOG CUD ONCE AGAIN FORM S NR BNDRY.

ON SUN...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WL SPREAD IN FM N AND SHUD BE A NICE DAY
WITH HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85.

STRONGER S/W WL BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN CWA SUN NITE AS TRW FIRE UP OVR
WRN HIGH PLAINS SUN AFTN AND THEN SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. PRECIP SHUD
REACH I29 BY SUNRISE MON. LOOKS WET ACRS CWA ON MON AS SFC FNT SAGS
ACRS SRN CWA WHILE S/W MOVES EWD ACRS CWA. WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...HIGHS WL ONLY BE FROM 70 TO 75. COOL AIR WL SPREAD S ACRS
CWA BEHIND THIS FNT AND WL PERSIST INTO TUES. SC SHUD BE WIDESPRD ON
TUES AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY HTG CUD TRIGGER A FEW RW-. HIGH
TEMPS WL BE ONLY ARN 70 N TO 75 S. GRADUAL WARMUP ON WED AND BACK TO
NORM THU AND FRI. NEXT FNT ON GFS SLOWER THAN 00Z RUN WITH BULK OF
PRECIP EXPECTED FRI AS FNT MOVES ACRS CWA. SO WL CONT CHC TRW FRI
ACRS CWA. HIGH PRES WL BUILD IN BEHIND FNT SO WL GO DRY ON SAT.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
527 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-041200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
527 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY
COLD AIR ALOFT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL...MAINLY WEST
OF A LINE FROM BROOKINGS TO YANKTON IN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OVER
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAP INTO A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO PRODUCE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... DEVELOPING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREADING EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM CDT WEST OF LINE
FROM BROOKINGS TO YANKTON IN SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.