Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
915 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

QUESTION TONIGHT CENTERS AROUND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  KOAX AND
KLBF SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW DECENT CAP OVER THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CAP STRENGTH WAS UNDERESTIMATED BY 18Z ETA AND LEADS TO CONCERN
ABOUT LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT. WITH STRONG GRADIENT AT
700 MB...+2C AT KUNR VS +11C AT KLBF AT 700 MB...ADVECTION OF
UNSTABLE AIR A SMALL DISTANCE WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT RAPID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. ALSO APPEARS 850 MB FRONT
MAY ALREADY BE IN VICINITY OF I80 BASED UP KOAX SOUNDING.
THEN...STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO WRN NEBRASKA HAS RESULTED IN
CONVECTION IN NE COLORADO AND NW KS AT TIME.  PROFILERS SHOWS THAT
THE FLOW IS BEGINNING TO VEER TO SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KOAX
WAS ALREADY SE AT 850 MB.  AS LLJ SETS UP AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SPREAD E TO NE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AT TIME...STRONG GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY AS ONE
MOVES INTO SD AND LOCATION OF VERY WARM MID-LEVEL AT 700
MB...SUGGEST A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW WHERE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
CAN OCCUR.  BASED UPON THIS...AM THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE FROM NEAR KYKN AND VERMILLION THROUGH TO TRI-STATE AREA AND
AND INTO SW MN.  LEAST CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS FAR
NW CWA.  THEREFORE WL LOWER POPS IN KHON.  OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT
LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE.  ALSO BASED ON LOCATION OF CAP AND 850 MB
FRONT...HAVE CONVECTION ENDING A BIT MORE QUICKLY IN THE SRN CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND HAVE A BREAK EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
CWA BEFORE CHANCE OF CONVECTION RECENTERS OVER MO RIVER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TEMPS...INCREASING CLOUDS WL SLOW THE FALL AND KEPT COOLEST
TEMPS IN NW CWA.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS WET BULB EFFECT WHEN RAIN
STARTS VS WARM ADVECTION.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP CURRENT MINS GOING BUT
WL TAKE A LAST LOOK IN NEXT FEW MINUTES AND MAY MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

NEW GRIDS AVAILABLE NEW ZFP AVAILABLE BY 0230Z.

&&

.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

SCHUMACHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1257 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-211200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE
WARM FRONT...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY
RAINS. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO A LINE SOUTH OF YANKTON TO SPENCER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER FROM FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHWEST IOWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WITH HEAVY RAINS THE MAIN
THREAT TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO THE MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SEVERE OR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.