Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST SAT APR 10 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LOCATED TO OUR NORTH OVER UTAH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POORLY DEFINED...BUT
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF ARIZONA. ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK DIV-Q FORCING WILL AID IN
CREATING LIFT AND INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. WE
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN RIM. AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE
4-CORNERS OVERNIGHT...SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET OVER
THE WHITE MTNS AND DOWN TO 6000 FEET OVER THE CHUSKAS. THESE AREAS
COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. COOL
AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH AREAS LIKE
FLAGSTAFF STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING 5-10 DEGREES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A RIDGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND A LITTLE COOLING FOR THURSDAY. WITH SPRING MIXING EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. COULD BE
ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1230 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

AZZ008-013-014-016>018-037-110100-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1230 PM MST SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN YAVAPAI...
GILA...SOUTHERN APACHE AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM MST. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL NEAR ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.