Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING NORTHERN ARIZONA HAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE REGION. FGZ SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN PRECIP. WATER...AND H5 TEMP HAS COOLED ANOTHER DEGREE TO
MINUS 9C. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GFS SHOWING VERY WEAK UPWARD FORCING
PER H5-H3 DIVQ FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND NEGATIVE LIS THIS AFTERNOON.
SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION...MAINLY PULSE STORMS FORMING
FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT
ADVERTISED DRYING TREND BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

ON THE HYDRO SIDE...OVERNIGHT RISES NOTED ON JADITO CREEK AND THE
LCR AT CAMERON GIVING AN INDICATION THAT SOILS ARE GETTING SATURATED
IN THESE AREAS. WILL BE MONITORING RAINFALL OVER THESE BASINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
DL
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-181400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHLAND.
ADDITIONALLY... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE
REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE AREAS
ABOVE 6000 FT MSL AFTER 11 AM MST...AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM SUPAI TO FLAGSTAFF TO WHITE RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHLAND
WEDENSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED. ON THURSDSAY...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN TO A DRIER
WESTERLY DIRECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY BUT LOOK FOR
A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...MODELS
SHOW A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.