Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SAT AUG 14 2004

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTHWESTWARD. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...EXTENSIVE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO WET SOILS...DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND COOLING IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. FINALLY REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES JUST AFTER
NOON AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE LEAST
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS. CURRENT STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AS
ADVERTISED... ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. STRONGER WINDS IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO
APPROACH SEVERE HAIL LEVELS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 1000 PM MST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONVECTION FROM NEW MEXICO WILL ALSO PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

MODELS BRING UP THE TROUGH CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. WITH HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINING OVER THE AREA...AND WEAKENING WINDS DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER BEING MORE OVERHEAD...EXPECT STORMS TOMORROW TO
ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. WILL PLACE WORDING INTO ZONES TO ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH TOMORROW DEPENDING ON CLOUD FIELDS
AND PROGRESS OF THIS CIRCULATION CENTER.

MODELS SLOWLY PROGRESS THIS CIRCULATION INTO UTAH BY MONDAY...
HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. MODELS DEVELOP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CA WHICH THEN PUSHES THIS CIRCULATION CENTER BACK INTO
NORTHEAST AZ TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE
STATE FOR DECREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ABOUT THE
WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

STAUDENMAIER

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM MST
ZONES: 4/5/6/7/8/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/37/38.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT AUG 14 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-151400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-

1000 AM MST SAT AUG 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
FROM ST JOHNS TO PAGE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NOON TODAY
THROUGH 1000 PM MST THIS EVENING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WATCH SEE
(PHXFFAFGZ). DEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...MODERATE
WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIATE FIRST OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHEAST PLATEAUS BY LATE
MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD TO OTHER LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCATIONS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL SEE
DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

STAUDENMAIER