Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1120 AM MST THU AUG 11 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL AID
IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...WITH THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD SEEING SCATTERED STORMS WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES.
&&

.DISCUSSION...ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP
CLOUD COVER WORDING FOR TODAY AND REDUCED CHCS OF PRECIP OVER ZONE
40 TODAY.

THINKING ABOUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF WE DECIDE TO GO THIS WAY...THE WATCH WOULD BE ISSUED
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TODAY COVERING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU SOUTH ACROSS YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN
GILA COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
TC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST WED AUG 11 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-121400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
945 AM MST WED AUG 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOIST AIR HAS SEEPED INTO YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY TODAY.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET STORMS GOING
BETWEEN 1030 AM AND 1200 PM MST. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP THEIR MOVEMENT
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR STRONG STORMS AND
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE COCONINO PLATEAU...YAVAPAI AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY...WE ARE WATCHING A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ACT TO PULL DEEP MOISTURE FROM ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN
OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA UP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ELEVATING THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESIDE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...SO EXPECTED A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.