Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST MON JUL 19 2004

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THIS WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT SEASONABLE
LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM
THIS MORNING WITH TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN BETWEEN TWO FEATURES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
WESTERN AZ AT THIS TIME IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. GOES PW PLOTS SHOW PLUME
OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER PUSHING INTO WESTERN AZ AS WELL...DUE TO
CIRCULATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. FGZ SOUNDING THIS MORNING
SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PW .89
INCHES, LARGE CAPE OF 1800 J, WEAK SHEAR IN LIGHT SSW FLOW.
SOUNDINGS TO THE SOUTH ARE SHOWING INCREASED CAPE BUT OTHERWISE
LITTLE EFFECTIVE CHANGE. SO...EXPECTING MAIN FEATURES TODAY BEING
THE SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE EARLY LIFT TO THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU AREA AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AFFECTING ROUGHLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA. CONVECTION ALREADY LOOKING VIGOROUS THIS MORNING
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF FLAGSTAFF.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE HIGH POSITION MOVES LITTLE FROM ITS
POSITION OVER SW NM...BUT THE PACIFIC TROUGH BASICALLY FILLS WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTS INLAND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEAK BRINGING SOME DRIER FLOW
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF AZ. EXPECTING THIS TO BRING REDUCED
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES...BUT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE
FOR CONTINUED LOW TO MEDIUM GRADE MONSOONAL ACTIVITY.

ONTON.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON JUL 19 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-191400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
955 AM MST MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH MOISTURE MOST PLENTIFUL FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF AND WESTWARD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF
WESTWARD...WITH STORMS GENERALLY FORMING FIRST OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1
INCH. EXPECT LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE
STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.