Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

.SYNOPSIS..TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINED ALONG
THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
ENDING UP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS A
RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOIST FLOW FROM MEXICO WILL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS ARIZONA LOOK SOMEWHAT STABLE
MAINLY RESULTING FROM A SATURATED MID LEVEL AIR MASS AND COOL LOW
LEVELS RESULTING FROM RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SINCE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
WHERE THE MID LEVELS DRY THE MOST (MORE INSOLATION). FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM
EASTERN ARIZONA MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

MODELS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IF THERE IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS DRYING
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A FIGMENT OF THE MODELS IMAGINATION. REALLY CANT
SEE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS COMING FROM VERY MOIST ORIGINS. THE
MODELS DRY THINGS FURTHER NEXT WEEK BUT THIS TOO SEEMS TO BE OVER
AGGRESSIVENESS BY THE MODELS. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD.

MCCOLLUM

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-171400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.
FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.