Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF
235 AM MST SUN OCT 03 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING S/WV TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
AHEAD OF IT MODELS INDICATE UPWARD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIV-Q
COUPLET. CURRENTLY THIS IS SPAWNING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NE
CWA. THIS COUPLET IS FOCUSED OVER THE SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS REGION IS ALSO UNDER THE LRQ OF AN EXITING UPPER
LEVEL JET. WIND PROFILES ALSO INDICATE GOOD SHEAR DURING THE DAY. THE
MESO-ETA IS SHOWING AN INCREASING IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING
INTO THE SE CWA. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE RIM EASTWARD
WITH AN ISOLATED SVR STORM POSSIBLE EAST OF THE RIM THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER S/WV IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A DIV-Q COUPLET IS INDICATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
WEAK CAA ALOFT. AGAIN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE S/WV MOVES EAST OF THE STATE ON WED.
RIDGING WILL BRING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
CWA THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER S/WV TROF
IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE STATE. SOME DISAGREEMENT ATTM BTWN THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH EURO DEEPER AND SLOWER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS.
SINCE THIS IS OUTSIDE THE FCST PERIOD WILL HAVE TIME TO WAIT FOR THE
MODELS TO SORT THINGS OUT. DF

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
948 AM MST SAT OCT 2 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-022100-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER IN APACHE COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
MARBLE CANYON AND GLEN CANYON-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS - SOUTH OF HWY 264-NORTHERN GILA-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
948 AM MST SAT OCT 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.