Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST SAT SEP 18 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY...GILA COUNTY...THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL END THE RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BUSY EVENING WITH THREE SEVERE TS WARNINGS AND A SMALL STREAM
FLOOD ADVISORY. HIGH PW AIR IS OVER THE STATE THIS EVENING...AT THE
SURFACE THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING NE TO SW THRU CENTRAL
NEVADA. THERE IS A DEFINITE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AS LAS VEGAS DEW POINT IS 21 WHILE THOSE IN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS BOUNDARY AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX ARE HELPING TO FOCUS STORMS IN WRN
YAVAPAI COUNTY NOW.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY AZ ZONES 8/37 FROM 9PM SAT THROUGH 3 AM
SUNDAY.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZ ZONES 8/15/18/37/38 FROM 3 PM MST TODAY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT SEP 18 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-191400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT SEP 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE MOST
FREQUENT STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN.

THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA...SEE PHXFFAFGZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING AN END TO THE WIND AND RAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.