Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 11, 2004, 9:40 PM CDT for Barnes County, Ransom County, Sargent County, North Dakota. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2004, 9:40 PM CDT (02:40 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2004, 10:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 35 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Barnes County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Sargent County, ND
The radar
The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 7:00 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 11, 8:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 2.7 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2506 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1786 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 92 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 152 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 8.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
396 WUUS53 KFGF 120240 SVRFGF NDC003-073-081-120315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 937 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA RANSOM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SARGENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA * UNTIL 1015 PM CDT. * AT 931 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF VALLEY CITY TO 20 MILES WEST OF FORMAN... MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... ENGLEVALE AT 940 PM... STIRUM AT 950 PM... BRAMPTON AT 955 PM AND LUCCA AT 1000 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4680 9840 4560 9796 4571 9731 4692 9783 $$ DR/TG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 11, 2:55 PM CDT, 6 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:55 PM CDT, 6 hours 45 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 .SHORT TERM... VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING ATTM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH ALMOST A 50 DEGREE TEMP GRADIENT FROM FAR NORTHWEST TO SOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.50 INCHES MOVING INTO SOUTH AS WELL...WITH WELL DEFINED FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JMS NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. FIRST...WILL TALK ABOUT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP IN MOST OF NORTHEAST ND INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT AND WED...WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT CHANGING TO SNOW BY WED MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A DVL TO HCO LINE. WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH WED HERE...COULD PUSH INTO WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA BUT HOPEFULL THAT GROUND WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED MELTING...BUT WILL NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINE IN THIS AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA CLOSELY THOUGH FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE. WILL ALSO KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR REST OF AREA WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 05Z. NOW FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WHICH LOOKS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SLOT DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/CENTRAL SD AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ATTM. EXPECT AREA TO HEAT OUT NICELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LISBON TO DETROIT LAKES TO AROUND PKD LINE...WITH TEMPS HERE AROUND 80 OR EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS WILL YIELD CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE WARMFRONT WHERE HELICITIES ARE IN EXCESS OF 450 M2/S2 ALONG WITH VGP PARAMETER AROUND 0.6 ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO AREA. ALSO...STORM MOTION SHOULD NEAR PARALLEL SFC BOUNDARY SO IF A SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY LAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...MY FEELING IS THERE WILL BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT...WITH ELEVATED PARAMETERS(IE. NEGATIVE SHOWALTER/S) SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS FAR NORTH AS THE BORDER. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN ALL AREAS WITH SEVERE MENTION AS WELL. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS AS WELL...WITH TRAINING STORMS AS UPPER FLOW PARALLELS FRONT. REGION HAS BEEN VERY DRY WITH MOST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS 3+ INCHES IN 1 HOUR...BUT IF AREAS REMAIN NEAR STORMS FOR A PROLONGED DURATION CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS EITHER WITH MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN NORTHEAST ND IN ADVISORY AREA. COULD BE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW HERE...WITH ETA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MORE...SO STAY TUNED. THERE WILL BE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EAST WED MORNING AS SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND SYSTEM CHANGING WHICH WILL CAUSE A RAIN SNOW MIX FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ND BY WED EVENING. UPPER LOW LINGERS AROUND AREA WED NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO AREA. WILL CONTINUE SHOWER THREAT INTO THU MORNIGN BEFORE HIGH FINALLY BUILDS IN AND DRIES AREA OUT. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. .LONG TERM...FRI-TUE. GFS REMAINS MODEL OF CHOICE HERE THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE BEING SHOVED EASTWARD AND OVER CWA ON FRI IS VERY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 00Z RUN...BUT CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE. RELATED SHOWERS MOVE EAST SLIGHTLY SOONER TOO AND THIS IS ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN GRIDS. BUT THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF PASSES OVER WHILE A LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE SO NO NEW SHOWERS. WEAK SYSTEM TO PASS BY SAT/SAT NIGHT LOOKS OK TOO THOUGH QPF IS LIKELY OVERDONE IN GFS. UPPER JET TO STAY SOUTH OF US MOST OF THIS PERIOD SO TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY ALL EASTERN ND FOR TODAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR EDDY...BENSON...RAMSEY...WALSH...TOWNER...NELSON...CAVALIER AND PEMBINA COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 05Z FOR REST OF ND COUNTIES. MN...WIND ADVISORY ALL MN COUNTIES UNTIL 05Z...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR KITTSON COUNTY. && KELLENBENZ/GV
Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 1:30 PM CDT, 8 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 130 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111400- BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL- EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS- GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON- NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY- RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI- SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER- WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN- 130 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...WINTER WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LISBON TO PARK RAPIDS LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN THREAT IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER NORTH...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 3PM AND 4PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THEREAFTER. STORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS. SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK LINE. THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW REPORTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE) KELLENBENZ
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 11, 7:44 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
744 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W
05/11/2004 1.00 INCH PENNINGTON MN PUBLIC
0725 PM HAIL BARNESVILLE 46.65N 96.42W
05/11/2004 1.75 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER
0725 PM HAIL LARIMORE 47.91N 97.63W
05/11/2004 0.75 INCH GRAND FORKS ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
MML/WJBLocal storm report, May 11, 7:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
756 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM HAIL ROTHSAY 46.47N 96.29W
05/11/2004 1.75 INCH WILKIN MN PUBLIC
&&
MML/WJBLocal storm report, May 11, 8:44 PM CDT, 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
844 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0840 PM HAIL ROCHERT 46.86N 95.69W
05/11/2004 1.00 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC
&&
MML/WJBLocal storm report, May 11, 8:52 PM CDT, 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
852 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0821 PM HAIL ROCHERT 46.86N 95.69W
05/11/2004 0.75 INCH BECKER MN NWS EMPLOYEE
&&
MML/WJBLocal storm report, May 11, 8:53 PM CDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0820 PM HAIL THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W
05/11/2004 0.88 INCH PENNINGTON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
MML/WJBLocal storm report, May 11, 9:10 PM CDT, 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
910 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM HAIL 12 E DETROIT LAKES 46.81N 95.59W
05/11/2004 1.00 INCH BECKER MN CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
MML/WJBThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 7:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Griggs | 46 min |
| May 11, 8:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Barnes | 47 min |
| May 11, 8:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks | 56 min |
| May 11, 8:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Griggs | 58 min |
| May 11, 9:04 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Traill | 41 min |
| May 11, 9:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks | 45 min |
| May 11, 9:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Steele | 45 min |
| May 11, 9:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Traill | 61 min |
| May 11, 9:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Grand Forks | 48 min |
| May 11, 10:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Traill | 44 min |
| May 11, 10:38 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Cass | 37 min |
| May 11, 10:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Traill | 61 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.