Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING AT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN SE MB...WITH ONE TROF EXTENDING THROUGH W
MN...ANOTHER THROUGH NE ND...AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH S
MB. WHEN COMPARING MODELS...ETA AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO USED COMPROMISE FOR FORECAST. BEST INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG THE E FRINGE OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
THE TROF IN W MN. THUS... EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE PRETTY MUCH E OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...
STILL DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO OCCUR...SO KEPT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH NO MENTION OF SEVERE. AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WEAKENS...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS...SO
KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE N HALF OF AREA INTO FRI MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRI AND LINGERS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVE OUT INTO THE N PLAINS ON SUN AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N HALF OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM....(MON-THU)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPING A W TROUGH DURING EXTENDED PERIOD. AMPLITUDE STILL
REMAINS A QUESTION WHICH AFFECTS TEMPERATURE AND TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION. REGION TO BE IN UPPER LEVEL W FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH MAIN ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TRANSITION
TO UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW FOR LATE WEEK PERIOD...BUT WITH TIMING STILL
A BIG QUESTION WILL HOLD OFF THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THU NIGHT.
06Z/12Z GFS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED W TROUGH...AND THUS A
SLOWER SOLUTION. TEMPERATURE TO INCREMENTALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

NG/TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
558 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-261347-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
548 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE VALLEY
EAST TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND BUMP UP INTO RESIDUAL INSTABILITY FROM THE VALLEY EAST. THIS
SCENARIO MIGHT HELP TO INDUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO SHOWERY RAINS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

BERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
542 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             4 E STRAUBVILLE         46.04N 97.82W
08/26/2004  0.88 INCH        SARGENT            ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERING YARD

&&

HOPKINS