Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ND...WITH MAIN LOW CENTER IN NORTH
CENTRAL SD. SFC WARM FRONT IS WELL DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO
SOUTHEAST MN...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND PREFER ETA FOR DETAILS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE THREATS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR TONIGHT...FEEL BEST CHANCE AT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
INSTABILITY HERE...COUPLED WITH BACKED SFC WINDS NORTH OF WARM FRONT
COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT HERE
FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AS WELL...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. TO
THE NORTH...SFC BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY COULD AID SCATTERED STORMS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION.

ON SUNDAY...SFC FRONT WILL SAG JUST SOUTH OF AREA...AS CONVECTION
EXITS SOUTHEAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
BOUNDARY IN WESTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT AN MCS(POSSIBLY SEVERE) TO THEN
PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STRONG 850MB CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50KT NEAR 500MB WILL AID THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED IN LATER RUNS. VERY STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
850-700MB LAYER AREA ARE ALSO PRESENT...SO HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. FOR NOW WILL
INCREASE POPS TO 50 PERCENT IN SOUTH...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED TO LIKELY IF EVENT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY WINDS...ALTHOUGH EVENT SEEMS
TO BE ELEVATED WHICH WOULD MEAN MORE OF A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO LINGER IN EAST INTO
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AREA THEREAFTER. REGION WILL REMAIN
IN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE AFFECTS REGION. TIMING OF
SYSTEMS VERY TOUGH AFTER 24 HOURS...SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM(WED-SAT)...
GFS CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTHER LONG
RANGE MODELS. CONSENSUS IS FOR MID LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OVER
PLAINS MID/LATE WEEK. SURFACE LEE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HIGH
PLAINS. WITH ABOVE SCENARIO TOUGH TO PIN POINT POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE
RIDING TSRA AND HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION WILL PROPAGATE INTO RIDGE
OVER FA. BEST OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS GFS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING RIDGE WITH HEALTHY
SHORT WAVE. WITH RIDGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE
UNTIL LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

DK/AV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
726 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-311400-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
726 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

CORRECTION TO LAST SENTENCE

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
LANGDON NORTH DAKOTA TO WADENA MINNESOTA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 3 PM AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 60S. A WEAK COLD OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL EXTEND
FROM NEAR BAUDETTE TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND WOULD BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM PARK RAPIDS TO FERGUS FALLS MINNESOTA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES