Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
750 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH INVERTED TROUGH AXIS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEST
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LOW CENTER. WEAKER AREA
OF CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED 70KT JET MAX/VORTICITY MAXIMA
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST SASK PROVINCE/NORTHEAST MONTANA.
REVIEW OF CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWED MAIN CONVECTION FIRING
IN VICINITY OF BISMARCK CWFA WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACTIVITY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ENTERS PICTURE LATER THIS EVENING
I.E. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET FOR CONVECTION TO FILL IN AHEAD OF
EASTWARD ADVANCING TROUGH. BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY
FORMING INTO SOME TYPE OF COMPLEX/CLUSTER OF NON-SEVERE (HEAVY RAIN)
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL WATCH TRENDS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE
DEGREE OF UPDATING NEEDED MAINLY ON AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING ISSUES
WITH STORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

BERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-271435-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
635 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING...AND
REACH INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
FROM 3PM THROUGH 9PM...ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO EXTREME
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM 5PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROSEAU...THROUGH CROOKSTON AND SOUTHWARD TO MOORHEAD AND WAHPETON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. SPOTTERS
MAY ALSO BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

GUST