Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
200 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
18Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED TROUGH AXIS VICINITY OF RED RIVER VALLEY
WHILE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS EVIDENT OVER ALBERTA/SASK PROVINCE.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED 100KT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH REGION STARTING TO BECOME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF JET ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM SASK PROVINCE IS STARTING TO AID LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVER REGION. THIS LIFT COUPLED WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE CHANGES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING ACROSS REGION. APPEARS THUNDER
CHANCES LOOKING FEASIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH DYNAMIC AIDED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. TIMING
WISE LOOKS LIKE BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/ASCENT/ INSTABILITY
MAXES OUT AT 00Z ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS
STARTING TO HEAD INTO MINNESOTA. PRESENT INDICATIONS POINT TO
CONVECTION ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL ADDRESS TIMING WORDING
ACCORDINGLY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH QUIET PERIOD SETS UP FOR REGION FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
WESTERN CANADA WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WARM CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY EXPECT COMMENCEMENT OF RETURN FLOW
WITH NEXT CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOMING ON THE HORIZON ON SUNDAY AS
NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY)
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH GFS WITH ONLY TIMING DIFFERENCES
NOTED. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE FASTER WITH BREAKING DOWN 500MB RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THUS WILL TREND WITH FASTER 12Z GFS. 500MB RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE
TOP. WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND LEAVE THUNDER CHANCES. RIDGE
BEGINS TO FLATTEN TUESDAY CREATING A MORE ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW.
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...WILL
EXTEND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ALL AREAS AND FAR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND BECOME BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

BERG/GRAFENAUER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
628 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151430-
BARNES-BENSON-CASS-CAVALIER-CLAY-EAST BECKER-EAST MARSHALL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-EAST POLK-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-GRAND FORKS-
GRANT-GRIGGS-HUBBARD-KITTSON-LAKE OF THE WOODS-MAHNOMEN-NELSON-
NORMAN-NORTH BELTRAMI-NORTH CLEARWATER-PEMBINA-PENNINGTON-RAMSEY-
RANSOM-RED LAKE-RICHLAND-ROSEAU-SARGENT-SOUTH BELTRAMI-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-STEELE-TOWNER-TRAILL-WADENA-WEST BECKER-
WEST MARSHALL-WEST OTTER TAIL-WEST POLK-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-WILKIN-
628 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN MINNESOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE. SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE EVENT WHEN DISCREET SUPERCELLS ARE MOST LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
233 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             4 SE MAHNOMEN           47.27N 95.91W
07/15/2004  1.00 INCH        MAHNOMEN           MN   PUBLIC

0207 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S MAHNOMEN            47.26N 95.97W
07/15/2004  65 MPH           MAHNOMEN           MN   MESONET

&&

KENNEDY