Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

.SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE SHORT TERM. FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM OHIO TO NORTH TEXAS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTH
GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEN BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY BUT THEN
GETS A LITTLE EXTRA PUSH FROM THE NORTHEAST AS HIGHS MOVES EAST OF
APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT BY SUNDAY NIGHT FRONT SHOULD LIE SOMEWHAT
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING OVER CWA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALABAMA ABOUT TO MOVE INTO CWA ATTEST TO THIS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY BUT
DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS THE BEST DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROF SLIDES
EASTWARD. NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD APPROACH THOSE LEVELS THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO A POSSIBILITY. HIGH DEW POINTS
TONIGHT WILL KEEP MINIMUM TEMPS UP A LITTLE FROM LAST NIGHT AND
SATURDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A BIT LOWER MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INDICATED
MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWER POPS ON MONDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONT THAT EDGES INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LIKEWISE BE PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD IN GENERAL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S
AT NIGHT AND 80S DURING THE DAY. &&

.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AM NOT EXPECTING LIFR
CIGS AT THIS TIME DUE TO ENOUGH MIXING WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER IF THE PRECIP BECOME MORE STRATIFORM THEN
LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING. FRONT DOES NOT PASS
ANY TAF SITES AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH 00Z. VSBYS WILL LIKELY GO BELOW 1 MILE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA     70 82 68 84 / 90 70 40 40
ATHENS      69 83 67 85 / 90 70 40 40
GAINESVILLE 68 82 67 84 / 90 70 40 40
ROME        68 84 67 87 / 90 70 40 40
COLUMBUS    72 84 70 87 / 80 70 40 50
MACON       71 85 69 87 / 80 70 40 50
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
550 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-210600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
550 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 60 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO ATHENS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...CAPES HAD INCREASED TO 2000 TO 3000 WITH LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6. THIS HAS CREATED AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING.

SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAGRANGE TO ATHENS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME SMALL
HAIL...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION...MAINLY THIS EVENING.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
813 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

GAZ030-031-041-042-052-210045-
813 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS
IN HEARD...CARROLL...HARALSON...PAULDING AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 845
PM EDT...

AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FISH CREEK TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WARESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
821 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

GAZ058-059-210100-
821 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL...40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN BUTTS AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL
900 PM EDT...

AT 819 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONTICELLO TO 16
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILLSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THE THREAT FROM
THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 900 PM EDT.

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