Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT SUN APR  4 2004

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 06Z MESOETA QPF OUTPUT...WILL EXTEND
THE FLOOD WATCH THRU TONIGHT FOR VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND
MAVERICK COUNTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WHILE TRAINING NORTHWARD ACROSS
VAL VERDE COUNTY. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM FOR VAL
VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. LATEST SHORT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF TUCSON INTERACTING
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO GENERATE THE CONVECTION. 00Z DRT SOUNDING AND
KDFX VAD WINDS INDICATE THE STEERING WINDS WILL MOVE THE STORMS
NORTH NORTHEAST. EXPECT THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION TO WEAKEN BY
SUNRISE. 00Z MESOETA SOLUTION INDICATES CONVECTION WILL RE-FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF TUCSON WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THRU MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL TRIGGER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY THRU
TUESDAY. TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF
CONVECTION ARE ALWAYS A PROBLEM AND USUALLY NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT
72HRS. THE GFS SOLUTION OPENS UP THE CLOSED LOW INTO A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE CWFA ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE FINAL EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW. A FROPA IS
FCST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND MAVERICK
COUNTIES.

&&

13/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
628 AM CDT SUN APR 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
VAL VERDE...EDWARDS...KINNEY AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VAL
VERDE COUNTY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
VAL VERDE COUNTY.