Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
430 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN PUSHING NORTH OF 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS AS A STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST
INTERACTS WITH THIS MOISTURE. THE RAIN COOLED AIR IS KEEPING MOST
RAIN AS SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE THE FLOOD THREAT THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG WAS OCCURRING MOST AREAS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD WARMER AIR TO
MIX INTO A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR MANY
AREAS. THIS MAY COME WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AGAIN AS WAS SEEN
TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS. PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH
THE TORNADO THREAT HOLDING CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
DISAPPEARING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AFTERWARDS THE TORNADO THREAT
MAY SHIFT DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
SOUTH WINDS AND NORTHWARD MIXING OF THE PSEUDO-FRONTAL INVERSION.
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE CAUSING NUMEROUS CELLS IN COMPETITION WITH
EACH OTHER, THE SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOKS
TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM FINALLY
DEPARTS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE CUMULATIVE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER FLOOD CONCERN BY AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AN HONEST TO GOODNESS COLD FRONT FINALLY WIPES AWAY ALL
BUT THE GROUND MOISTURE AND BRINGS WITH IT A CHANCE OF FREEZING
TEMPS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT
AND CONSISTENCY ON KEEPING A POLAR JET DOMINATED PATTERN, SO THE
CHANCE OF SUSTAINED DRY WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  74  65  74 /  60  60  60  70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  75  65  74 /  60  60  60  70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           63  75  63  73 /  20  40  50  60
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       66  76  66  76 /  50  50  60  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

18/01