Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER-AIR SHORTWAVES HAS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND IS EXITING EASTWARD. MOVING ALONG BEHIND THIS WAVE IS ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EXTENDING EAST INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
THE SECOND AND LESS ACTIVE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL...AS SEEN BY DOPPLER
RADAR VAD WINDS AND THE WIND PROFILER OBSERVATION NETWORK ACROSS
TEXAS. CLEARING SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CLOUDY. IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A

MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
FORECAST. BRINGING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY.
THIS SETS UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
CONVECTIVE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEK AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN.
MODELS MOVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE
WORKWEEK AND THIS WILL SHUTOFF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. A STRONG BAJA/PACIFIC TAPE
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS WILL PROVIDE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S NEAR 90 AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
INTO THE 70S. LATER IN THE WORKWEEK...LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MORE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  84  67  85 /  30  40  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  87  69  87 /  20  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  86  69  87 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
523 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF AN EAGLE PASS TO SAN ANTONIO TO GIDDINGS LINE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS AN OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.