Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
836 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON PACKAGE HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP
AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. EVENING POPS WERE LOWERED SOME DUE
TO WEAKENING RADAR TRENDS, BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS ARE ALREADY
THREATENING OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE DIGGING TO SUGGEST A GOOD SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT AND, WITH COOLING ALOFT, A THREAT OF HAILSTORMS
AND DOWNBURSTS. TIMING OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND DISTURBANCE
APPEARS SLOWER THAN FORECAST, SO MADE SOME SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
WINDS AND INCREASED POPS BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND NOON THURSDAY.

EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW LLANO COUNTY AROUND 3Z AND NRN VAL
VERDE BY 4Z, THEN INTO DRT BY 6Z, AUS 7Z, SAT BY 8Z. A POST FRONTAL
MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING EAST OF SJT AND WILL
LIKELY EXPAND TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY PRESENT THE HIGHEST THREAT OF
FLOODING. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD UP TO 3 INCHES FROM THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTALS INDICATED BY THE KEWX DOPPLER
ARE MOSTLY ACCURATE WITH ONLY A FEW OF THE HIGHEST ESTIMATES
CONTAMINATED BY HAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND RAINFALL IS ACCUMULATING.

SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE BIG BEND, SHORT-WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO, WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE
TO GENERATE NUMEROUS BANDS OF CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. LATE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS. WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH TRAINING OF STORMS EXPECTED DUE STEERING FLOW
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL SURFACES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
NOT BE ISSUED AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED. IN ADDITION, SOME STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DUE
CAPES OF 1K TO 2K J/KG. THESE HAVE BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH WAS UPDATED AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING.

RIDGES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD INTO TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION. SKIES
WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY LEADING TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
BY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER GREATLY ON SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CUTOFF SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL OPEN UP AND BE EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF STATES AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
BY MONDAY AND HAVE ADDED 5 TO 10 FOR POPS AS LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, MADE NO MENTION IN ZONES AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONFLUENT AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN LATER NEXT
WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              79  52  71  49 /  30   0   0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  53  71  45 /  30   0   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           81  58  74  49 /  30   0   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       85  56  72  49 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA ALL AREAS THRU 4 AM CDT.

&&

18/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1001 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-141100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1001 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-140200-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
651 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY AND A COLD FRONT ON DECK...

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON IS BARRELING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...SOME
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM CDT TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL HIT THE AUSTIN METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO NEAR 3 AM CDT. NORTH
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FIGHT TO GET OUT OF THE 60S TOMORROW...WITH FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING.