Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

.UPDATE...HEAVY RAIN NOW FOCUSED ALONG BEXAR MEDINA COUNTY LINE
NORTH INTO EASTERN BANDERA AND KENDALL COUNTIES. HOT POCKET OF AIR
TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD (BY GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW) INTO COOL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW..THUS CREATING A
PSUEDO-COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THESE
STORMS. NEW FORECASTS HANDLE THIS WITH HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DRIFTING NWD ACRS THE WESTERN SXNS OF CNTRL TX
AHEAD OF A S/W TROF SLOWLY LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO...WHILE SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WERE SPREADING NWD ACRS THE EAST.  STORMS WILL
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONT WITH LOW CHC POPS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE S/W TROF.  WILL SEE DIMINISHING POPS
DURING THE DAY MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WITH THE TROF MOVG EWD
AND EXCEPT FOR ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE EAST MONDAY EVENING.
BY MON EVENING THRU TUESDAY THE UPR RDG TO DOMINATE WITH WARMER
HUMID CONDS PREVAILING.  ON WEDNESDAY S/W ENERGY ENTERING SW TX
COULD PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION IN THE NWRN CWA ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RDG BY THE AFTN AND EVENING.  FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND IT APPEARS S TX WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE WITH PSBL S/W ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO/W TX THAT COULD
RESULT IN CONVECTION MOVG INTO THE NW CWA EACH AFTN AND EVENING.  FOR
NOW HOWEVER WILL FORECAST GENERALLY AS IS WITH CLIMO SEA-BREEZE POPS
MAINLY IN THE EAST.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BEXAR
AND MEDINA COUNTIES TIL 1045 PM.

&&

02/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-231030-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
539 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.