Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

.UPDATE...RAISING THE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES DUE TO
ONGOING CONVECTION.  THE RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT MORE TOWARD THE
EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
ALSO WITH THE HIGHS TODAY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS TOMORROW, FRIDAY, IN THIS REGION TO
THE LEVELS OF TODAY.  OTHERWISE JUST MINOR TWEEKS TO THE WINDS AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAKER THAN USUAL HIGH ALOFT IS EVOLVING OVER
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS AND LAST NIGHTS SCATTERED RAIN MAKING SYSTEM ALOFT HAS
MOVED TO EAST TEXAS.  WILL SHOW LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH AND EXTREME
EAST PART OF THE AREA FOR EARLY EVENING...WITH MUCH LOWER POPS TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FORECASTS SHOW
2ND WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING MAINLY NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS
PATTERN BODES WELL TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PART OF THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY STABLE
CONDITIONS TO BRIEFLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS BASED ON
COMPOSITE OF SOLUTIONS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND AUGUST 2004 TRENDS.

MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM ALOFT COMES OUT OF THE
WEST...MAINLY NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST...IN THE VICINITY OF AROUND 20 PERCENT...WITH 30 PERCENT
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAYS WEATHER PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF A LITTLE MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS...AS WEAK HIGH ALOFT EVOLVES.  TODAYS FORECASTS
FOR NEXT WEEK STILL SHOW GENERAL PATTERN OF TROF OVER WESTERN U.S.
AND RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MAIN TRACK OF RAIN
MAKING WEATHER SYSTEMS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN YESTERDAY.
ISOLATED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOWS UP OVER THE EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND POSSIBLY IN THE EVENING OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS NEAR THE RIO GRANGE.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...FORECASTS SHOW SOUTHERN
PART OF WEATHER SYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...STILL
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY...AS WEAK HIGH ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
OVER AREA...WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  96  74  95 /  50  30  30  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  96  71  95 /  50  30  30  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

06/02/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
610 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-201100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
610 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.  OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT REQUIRED.