Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SOME PRODUCT FORMAT CHANGE PROBLEMS DELAYED FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON
SORRY FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

SLOW MOVING CUTOFF UPPER LOW WOBBLED TOO FAR WEST FOR COMFORT
CONSIDERING THE VERY SATURATED SOILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RADAR SHOWS A GENERAL STABILIZING TREND FOR EARLY
THIS EVENING HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LOW PULLING MOISTURE FROM BOTH
MCS REMNANTS TO THE NORTH AND FROM A TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
FROM MEXICO, AM CONCERNED ABOUT A WARM-CORE EFFECT OVERNIGHT SIMILAR
TO THAT SEEN OVER THE HGX FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
LATE NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AS THIS UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKS FROM NEAR HEARNE TOWARD
WACO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH SHOULD BE MORE OF AN EVENING
THREAT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AS HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD ONLY LAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND
THEN DIMINISH WITH DECREASED DAYTIME HEATING.

MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST IS LEFT THE SAME AS THE GFS SHOWS
GOOD CONSISTENCY. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO COOL TEMPS FOR THE
NEXT 4 PERIODS TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  90  74  92 /  60  50  30  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  89  74  91 /  60  50  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  99  77 100 /  10  10   0   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  92  74  95 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA TONITE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
S CNTRL TX

&&

18/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-161100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
106 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BASTROP...FAYETTE...LAVACA...LEE...TRAVIS AMD WILLIAMSON
COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREA. AN EASTERLY
WAVE MAY PRODUCE RAINS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE ADDED TO THE
NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ173-192>194-208-209-223>225-151830-
BASTROP-CALDWELL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-LAVACA-LEE-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-
1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TRIGGERED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN-
MOST COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH AND BY 130 PM SHOULD EFFECT A ROUND TOP TO LEXINGTON LINE.
EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OF
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HALLETTSVILLE AREA COULD
PRODUCE NEAR ONE INCH OF RAIN. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...YIELDING UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
141 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ173-192>194-208-209-222>225-151930-
BASTROP-CALDWELL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-
141 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TRIGGERED BY TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN-
MOST COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AREA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 15 MPH AND BY 230 PM SHOULD BE NEAR A THRALL TO LINCOLN TO LA
GRANGE LINE. EXPECT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HALLETTSVILLE AREA COULD PRODUCE NEAR TWO INCHES OF RAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE YIELDING UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ171>173-188-190>194-208-209-222>225-152030-
BASTROP-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-
HAYS-KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.TRIGGERED BY TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. THE AREA IS MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH AND BY 330 PM SHOULD BE NEAR AN ANDICE TO BASTROP TO
KARNES CITY LINE. EXPECT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CUERO AREA COULD PRODUCE NEAR TWO INCHES
OF RAIN. A RAPIDLY MOVING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING SOUTH MAY
MOVE THROUGH BURNET TO NEAR JOHNSON CITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE YIELDING UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

TXZ171>173-188>194-205>209-221>225-152200-
BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-GILLESPIE-
GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-KENDALL-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH.  BY 5 PM...THE PRECIPITATION AREA SHOULD
RUN GENERALLY EAST OF CHERRY SPRING TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO KARNES CITY
LINE. EXPECT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND
FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS.