Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...NORTH TEXAS MCC STARTING TO DRIFT INTO NORTHERN CWA
WHILE STORMS FROM EAST TEXAS APPROACH ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. EXPECT
SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF DAILY HEATING. STILL...UPPED
POPS TO 50 PERCENT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEVERE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDED. AT THIS POINT...STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY
TO MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN ANTONIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA, ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME
THIS EVENING NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE EAST AND COMING OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS OUT WEST. LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXITS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK SHORT-WAVES AND SOLAR HEATING TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WITH STEERING FLOW
ENABLING SOME TO MOVE INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN CWA LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. RATHER HIGH CAPES AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION.
SEABREEZE MAY CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION IN
THE EAST. LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PATTERN CHANGES WITH RIDGE
ERODING FROM THE WEST AS LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A TROPICAL TAP AND ALLOW SOME EASTERLY WAVES
TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. ALSO, A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY FORM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO, THEN DRIFT INLAND
AND TRACK NORTH TOWARD TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FAVORS RAISING
POPS, HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINS NEXT WEEK DUE TO
TROPICAL INFLUENCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  91  74  94 /  20  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  91  72  93 /  20  20  20  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  93  75  93 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

03/13/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
753 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND THE
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...ALONG WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...AND
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED STORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
140 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

TXZ173-191>194-205>209-220>225-050800-
ATASCOSA-BASTROP-BEXAR-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-LAVACA-LEE-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
150 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM FOR TRAVIS AND BASTROP
   COUNTIES...
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM FOR HAYS...COMAL
   AND CALDWELL COUNTIES...

A COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
LOCATED FROM BOERNE EASTWARD TO GIDDINGS AND GONZALES. MOVEMENT
WAS SOUTH AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WARNED COUNTIES ALONG WITH PEA TO DIME
SIZED HAIL.

THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.