Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
858 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

.UPDATE...
LOTS OF MINOR TWEEKS MADE TO THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS TO INDICATE
SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM AND PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS TUESDAY. A LATE EVENING WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE TEMPORARY REDUCTION OF MOISTURE OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES HAS LED TO A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THIS
LATE EVENING WAVE INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER SC TX.
OTHERWISE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARD
SUNRISE TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW DRAWS CLOSER. MAIN THREAT OF
SEVERE TONIGHT IS WELL ADDRESSED IN THE LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
FOR SC AND SW TX.

FOR TOMORROW, THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF DYNAMICS ALOFT WITH A
FRONTAL ZONE SPILLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH TIME. THUS REPLACED THE LG HAIL/DMG WIND WORDING
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LEFT SVR IN THE ZONES. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE IN SKY COND AND POPS TO REFLECT CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WERE ALSO APPLIED TO MIN TEMPS AND MOISTURE MAINLY IN CENTRAL PARTS.
QPF WAS ALSO ADJUSTED FOR EVENING TRENDS AND THE SLOWER TRENDS OF
MODEL QPF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
GOOD HEATING TAKING PLACE OVER THE WRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN WITH A
WEAK DRY LINE BOUNDARY ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY...AND THIS IS
PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLD CONVECTION OVR THE NRN HILL COUNTRY ATTM.
EXPECT CONTD DEVELOPMENT OVR THE N CENTRAL CWA WITH GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SVR IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND PSBL DAMAGING WINDS THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO FORM TO THE WEST THIS EVENING
AS THE NEG TILT TROUGH ENTERS W TX...ENTERING THE WRN CWA BY 06Z
AND MOVG SLOWLY EWD ACRS THE AREA AS A CLOSED LOW LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WILL
MAKE MENTION IN THE ZONES. MESOETA CONTS TO SHOW SOME GOOD 6 HOUR QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH IN THE DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPR
LOW...BUT IT APPEARS MOVEMENT WILL BE BRISK ENUF TO KEEP TOTALS BELOW
FFG. ANY SLOWING OF THE UPR LOW WOULD REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE EASTERN CWA. EXPECT POPS TO TAPPER OFF BY TUESDAY AFTN BY SCT
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS LIKELY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE EAST WED
MORNING. NLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPR LOW WILL CLEAR SKIES BY WED
EVENING WITH FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THU MORNING. NO BIG
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AS AN UPR RDG PREVAILS THU/FRI...CHC RW/TRW
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPR TROF ARRIVES...DRYING OUT FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

18/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
844 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-241200-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
844 AM CST MON FEB 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PERSISTS
FOR TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 PM CST MON FEB 23 2004

TXZ171>173-186>194-204>208-223-240115-
BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-GILLESPIE-
GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KENDALL-KERR-LEE-LLANO-MEDINA-TRAVIS-
WILLIAMSON-

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS CANCELLES...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH ISSUED IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY FOR
LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...LEE...GILLESPIE...BLANCO...TRAVIS...
BASTROP...KERR...KENDALL...HAYS...CALDWELL...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
BEXAR...COMAL...BANDERA...AND MEDINA COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED FOR THESE COUNTIES...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISUTRBANCE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.