Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004

.DISCUSSION...
S CNTRL TX PRETTY MUCH FREE OF PCPN THIS EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER
THAT WONT LAST AS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BEING GENERATED BY TWO
DIFFERENT FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE CWA TDA.  TO THE NORTH
CONVECTION BEING PRODUCED BY COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND
THE DIFFUSE CDFNTL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF IN NM/W TX.
TO THE SOUTH VERY MOIST AIR WAS BEING PULLED NORTH OVER THE
SHALLOW REMNANTS OF YDAS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  ALSO ISOLD OROGRAPHIC
STORMS LOCATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. THEREFORE EXPECT GOOD
CHC POPS ACRS THE CWA TDA AS THE UPR TROF SLOWLY APPROACHES AND
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH DRIFTS NWD AS AMS DESTABILIZES DURING THE
DAY.  THE GFS AGAIN SHOWS MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS TDA AND THIS BEARS WATCH AS AMS NEARLY TROPICAL
TO THE SOUTH GIVEN NEAR 2 INCH PWS AT BRO....AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CELLS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVR THE ERN
THIRD OF THE CWA AND WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL FLOOD WATCH.  BOTH ETA/GFS
INDICATE DECREASING RAIN CHCS TONIGHT/MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPR TROF/CDFNT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR MORE LIKELY VIRGA IN
THE NWLY FLOW MONDAY.

CAA TO PREVAIL MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
PLEASANT DRY WX PREVAILING TUE/WED.  AN APPROACHING UPR TROF
ARRIVING IN WEST TX WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO
SOUTH TX WED/THU WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE WEST-
EAST WED AFTN-THU. INCREASING POPS FRI-SAT-SUN AS A CLOSED
LOW DROPS INTO FOUR CORNERS AND LIFTS/OPENS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THE GFSLR A BIT FASTER LIFTING OUT THE LOW THAN THE
ECMWF ON SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  60  80  55 /  50  20  10   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  77  58  79  51 /  50  20  10   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  62  83  57 /  40  30  10   0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  61  80  54 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

01/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-250942-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DE WITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
500 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY. THERE IS STILL A
THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET
TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO KENEDY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.