Flash Flood Warning 144, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 162039
FFSSAT
TXC123-149-285-162145-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
336 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR DEWITT...
LAVACA AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DECREASED SOMEWHAT AND  
BECOME MORE SPOTTY.  HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.    

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2899 9769 2893 9731 2936 9666 2961 9692
          2998 9663 3012 9681 2983 9723 2961 9710
          2930 9723

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1209 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE CLEARED THE AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...AND KARNES CITY AREAS FROM
THE FLOOD WATCH AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG THE COAST IS THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE LEFT FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THIS
COMPLEX WILL TRIGGER NEW STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TO
CONTINUE THE FLOOD THREAT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNSET.

CHANGES TO TEMPS AND SKY WERE MAINLY COSMETIC WITH SOME COOLER MAXES
ADDED FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

A QUICK LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE INDICATES A BETTER PATTERN OF
STABILITY TO MAKE FOR A MUGGY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR EASTERN SECTIONS SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS AS MODELS HINT AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. IN THE EXTENDED, SOME DEEPER CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WITH MODELS HINTING AT A TROPICAL TAP FROM THE PACIFIC.
FEATURES HERE ARE VAGUE SO WILL LIKELY CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCE IN
SHOTGUN FASHION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CROSSROADS AREA WILL DETERMINE THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE LONG-TERM.
MODELS SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY AND SEEM REASONABLE, SO WILL GO
WITH A CONSENSUS.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER AREA WITH SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE OVER THE RIO GRANDE. PWS RANGE FROM 1.4 INCHES FAR WEST
TO 1.8 INCHES FAR EAST. VORTICITY MAXES AND JET STREAKS WILL ROTATE
AROUND LOW TO PROVIDE LIFT, WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEABREEZE
ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE EAST. OUT WEST, SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN
ORDER. AS A RESULT, POPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE TO 50 OR 60 OVER THE FAR EAST. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FAR EAST, ALTHOUGH WILL LET DAY CREW DETERMINE ANY WATCHES
AFTER PERUSAL OF 12Z RUNS. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE A FEW PULSE STRONG
STORMS WITH DOWNBURSTS POSSIBLE DUE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT DOWN MAINLY IN THE EAST DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

THURSDAY...WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS MOST OF UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEAST DUE TO TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SHEAR
AXIS REMAINING WITHIN A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. POPS MUCH LOWER
AS SEABREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN MECHANISM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM
THE SOUTHERN STATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ONLY A HINT OF THE
SHEAR-AXIS REMAINING. NO POPS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
SEABREEZE.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EASTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM.

&&

03/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN RECONFIGURED TO INCLUDE
AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LEXINGTON TO BASTROP TO GONZALES
TO KARNES CITY LINE. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING.  SCATTERED TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ON SATURATED SOILS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WATCH AREA WITH
ISOLATED 4 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.