Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
230 AM MDT TUE OCT 5 2004

SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER EAST PUSH OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SLID ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARD THE BORDERLAND THIS
AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. A NUMBER
OF FACTORS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER
TODAY. OUR REGION STANDS THE BEST CHANCE IN THE COUNTRY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. FOR WEDNESDAY THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTWARD. THURSDAY
AND BEYOND WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.

DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING EAST PUSH HAS STRENGTHENED A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE RESULT IS TO FINALLY KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THE AREA OF GENERATION IS A N/S LINE
FROM T OR C SOUTH TO W. DONA ANA COUNTY.

TODAY THE AREA COULD FIND ITSELF IN A SVR TSTM WATCH BOX AS A NUMBER
OF INGREDIENTS LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA NEAR THE DMN
AREA. ALSO A SHARP DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST TO THE WEST...NEAR DMN.

EPZ EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED A LOSS OF SFC MOISTURE WHICH WAS
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR NO STORMS YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
EAST PUSH DEWPOINTS ARE UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND SO SHOULD BE THE PW
VALUES. THUS WE SHOULD HAVE AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MSTR AGAIN. WE
NEED THE ADDITIONAL MSTR TO BUST THE WEAK MID LEVEL CAP.  THE PROG
ETA SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A WIND PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD VEERING AND SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL TREND TOWARD FAVORING
STORM DEVELOPMENT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AND COOLER
TEMPS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  ALTHOUGH NOT POSITIONED AS WELL AS IN
THE PREVIOUS SVR WX OUTBREAK...JET INTERACTIONS MAY PLAY A MINOR
ROLE WITH RR AND LF JET FLANKS EAST AND WEST OF THE CWFA
RESPECTIVELY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...MANY OF THE SAME FACTORS REPLAY AGAIN...BUT THE
FOCUS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTED EAST OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD.
TODAY SHOULD BE A N-S LINE FROM NEAR DEMING EASTWARD.

THURSDAY ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE STORM FOCUS AS THE SLOW TO
MOVE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THUS MOST
ZONES WILL HAVE MINIMAL OR NO POPS...EXCEPTIONS BEING FAR EAST ZONES.

FINALLY...IN THE LONGER TERM THE AREA APPEARS TO DRY OUT UNDER NW
FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. THUS KEEPING IT DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDING POPS BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT SE FLOW LOOKS TO
PULL MOISTURE BACK IN AND A WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               BB 082/060 080/058 080 46320
ALAMOGORDO            TB 074/054 075/054 074 56320
LAS CRUCES            BB 079/056 079/055 078 46220
CLOUDCROFT            TB 060/041 058/039 057 56331
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB 075/054 076/053 074 46220
SILVER CITY           BB 075/051 071/047 070 22210
DEMING                BB 085/056 081/055 079 24210
LORDSBURG             UB 086/058 082/053 082 11000
SIERRA BLANCA         TB 077/056 075/055 075 56331

.ELP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

14 / BIRD

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