Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
1257 PM MDT WED SEP 29 2004

SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ALL BUT EASTERN ZONES.  A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AS
CONDITIONS FAVOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE MORNING SOUNDING AT EPZ INDICATED BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND
SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE PROFILE. ADDITIONALLY CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS AT THE LOWER LEVELS AS PART OF A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH SOME
MID LEVEL COOLING AND DRYING ALOFT.  AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND FORCING TO HELP DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE STORMS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.  WINDS MAY BE
STRONG NEAR STORMS.  WIDE SPREAD HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AND WILL TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  AFTER THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION A DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT SHOULD LEAD TO A QUIETER PATTERN.
 A FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE FLOW BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN MOVE
EAST. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY THAT COULD COOL TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.  SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  THE DRY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A WEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE.  MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               BU 059/080 061/082 058 31200
ALAMOGORDO            BU 053/075 052/079 052 42200
LAS CRUCES            BU 057/079 057/082 056 31000
CLOUDCROFT            BU 040/058 040/061 039 42200
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BU 052/074 048/079 052 41000
SILVER CITY           BU 048/069 047/072 047 41000
DEMING                BU 056/077 052/081 053 30000
LORDSBURG             BU 056/079 054/083 052 30000
SIERRA BLANCA         BU 054/077 058/078 057 31200

.ELP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1049 AM MDT WED SEP 29 2004

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-292248-
EL PASO TX-HUDSPETH TX-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION NM-
SOUTHERN DESERT NM-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL NM-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALAMOGORDO...ANTHONY...CANUTILLO...
CHAPARRAL...DEMING...EL PASO...FABENS...FORT BLISS...HOLLOMAN AFB...
LAS CRUCES...LORDSBURG...MONTANA VISTA...SAN ELIZARIO...
SIERRA BLANCA...SILVER CITY...SOCORRO...SUNLAND PARK...
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES AND UNIVERSITY PARK
1049 AM MDT WED SEP 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GENERATED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH.  BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

GNL