Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
1220 PM MDT SAT JUN 26 2004

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP US
WARM...WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH EVENING.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WHICH WILL HELP WARM OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL AND LESSEN
OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

DISCUSSION...
TWO WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL BE BATTLING EACH OTHER OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HIGH PRESSURE TENDS TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH ITS SINKING AIR.  BUT AT THE
SURFACE WE HAVE A PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  THE MOISTURE HELPS TO FUEL OUR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AGAIN TODAY
THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN THE APPARENT WINNER WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVING
LITTLE TROUBLE GETTING UP AND GOING.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE MOISTURE WE WILL ALSO SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON MONDAY...BUT NOW THEY HAVE DELAYED THAT FOR
24 HOURS.  AT THE SAME TIME THE MODELS HAD BEEN TRYING TO DRY US OUT
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THE LATEST RUNS KEEP SLOWING DOWN THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WHICH IS WHAT WOULD HAVE ALLOWED SOME DRIER AIR
TO MOVE IN.  SO IVE EXTENDED THE POPS INTO THURSDAY AND PROBABLY
COULD HAVE EXTENDED THEM INTO FRIDAY...BUT THURSDAY WILL DO FOR NOW
UNTIL TOMORROWS MODEL RUNS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

EL PASO               UB 068/093 067/091 069 22233
ALAMOGORDO            BB 063/093 062/090 064 22333
LAS CRUCES            UB 064/093 063/091 065 22233
CLOUDCROFT            BB 044/071 043/068 045 22333
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB 062/091 061/088 063 22222
SILVER CITY           UB 057/086 056/084 058 12222
DEMING                UB 062/094 061/091 063 11222
LORDSBURG             UB 062/093 061/092 063 11111
SIERRA BLANCA         BB 063/092 062/089 064 22233

.ELP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

15 BRICE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 2004

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-262300-
EL PASO TX-HUDSPETH TX-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION NM-
SOUTHERN DESERT NM-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS NM-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN NM-SOUTHWEST DESSERT/BOOTHEEL NM-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION NM-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT NM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALAMOGORDO...DEMING...EL PASO...LAS
CRUCES...LORDSBURG...SILVER CITY...TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES
1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.  THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER AREA
MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING
WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN OVER SOME ISOLATED SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STORM CHANCES REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
PUSH OF MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.