Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Quad Cities, IA

July 5, 2004Henry County, Mercer County, Rock Island County, Illinois; Scott County, Iowa

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2004, 8:14 PM CDT for Henry County, Mercer County, Rock Island County, Illinois; Scott County, Iowa. It was in force for 46 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2004, 8:14 PM CDT (01:14 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2004, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Scott County, IA, Henry County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Rock Island County, IL

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 5, 8:45 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Geneseo, IL	LARGE TREE BRANCH BLOWN DOWN DAMAGING HOUSE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 31 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 5, 4:20 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1346 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1014 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KDVN 060114
SVRDVN
IAC163-ILC073-131-161-060200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
814 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA
  HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
   LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE 
   WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
   EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DONAHUE TO BUFFALO TO HAMLET 
   TO SEATON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES WEST OF 
   DAVENPORT TO 8 MILES WEST OF DAVENPORT TO ALEDO...AND MOVING 
   EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  ROCK ISLAND...RAPIDS CITY...PORT BYRON...OSBORN...MOLINE...
  MILAN...HAMPTON...GREEN ROCK...GENESEO...EAST MOLINE...
  CORDOVA...COLONA...ANDOVER...ANDALUSIA...ALEDO...
  LONG GROVE...LE CLAIRE...ELDRIDGE...DAVENPORT AND BETTENDORF.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS.

LAT...LON 4175 9052 4173 9088 4158 9075 4124 9080
      4108 9092 4108 9047 4116 9046 4122 9020
      4145 9012 4168 9025

$$

LRE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 3:44 PM CDT, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 3:44 PM CDT, 4 hours 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS...WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST SOUTHEAST...FROM A LOW NEAR
DSM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEAR PIA.  A FETCH OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN IS HOLDING THE FRONT IN PLACE IN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW IN IOWA IS FORCING THE FRONT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND DIFFUSE FRONT IS
APPARENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONT. GOOD UPPER SUPPORT
AT THE JET LEVEL...DIVERGENCE AT 500MB...AND STRONG VVS...EXIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. CAPES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2500
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT-TERM MODELS IN HANDLING THE IOWA LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS. ETA STILL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING SITUATION BEST.

THE NORTHERN FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRONT...AS ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA PROGRESSES
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES
PUT OUT BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  A VIGOROUS VORT MAX WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST PVA
NORTHWEST HALF.  VVS AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FA
AROUND 06Z. A SECOND VORT MAX WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONGER TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) THE PRIMARY
500MB TROF FINALLY MOVES OVER THE FA WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AFTER
THAT...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THRU THURSDAY...WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY THE SURFACE.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THRU THE
FA IN THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

REA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:40 AM CDT, 14 hours 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
540 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061030-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
540 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
EAST CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. LARGE HAIL OF PENNY TO
QUARTER SIZE WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IS
LIKELY...WITH AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY NUISANCE
TYPE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND LOW LYING OR POORLY
DRAINED AREAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR AS THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...WITH POTENTIALLY ONE AXIS
OF HEAVIER RAIN FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO FREEPORT AND ANOTHER ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND 30 MILES EITHER SIDE. LOCATIONS
INCLUDING IOWA CITY...WASHINGTON...BELLE PLAINE...BURLINGTON...
BRIGHTON AND MUCH OF STEPHENSON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAIN IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO...THUS CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RUNOFF LEADING TO FLOODING IN OR NEAR THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAYS STORMY WEATHER MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.  LOCATIONS MOST AT RISK FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE
REPORT ANY HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH OR FLOODING TO YOUR
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
THE QUAD CITIES.

05/ERVIN

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 5, 5:04 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
504 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     TORNADO          6 SSW PROPHETSTOWN      41.59N 89.98W
07/05/2004                   WHITESIDE          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO DAMAGED FARM MACHINE SHED, NO INJURIES. TOUCHED
            DOWN TWICE, ONCE IN OPEN FIELD AND SECOND TIME ON MACHINE
            SHED. FARM IS 6 MILES SOUTH ON WASHINGTON ROAD. THIS IS
            THE SAME TORNADO THAT WAS ORIGINALLY REPORTED 4 MILES SW
            OF PROPHETSTOWN.

&&

AWIPSUSR

Local storm report, Jul 5, 5:49 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HEAVY RAIN       STANLEY                 42.64N 91.81W
07/05/2004  5.00 INCH        BUCHANAN           IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            OBSERVER REPORTS 5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM.

&&

WE

Local storm report, Jul 5, 6:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S STANLEY             42.64N 91.81W
07/05/2004                   BUCHANAN           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEST BRANCH BUFFALO CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS...COVERING
            COUNTY ROADS C57 AND W33. BOTH ROADS ARE CLOSED.

&&

WE

Local storm report, Jul 5, 6:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S STANLEY             42.57N 91.81W
07/05/2004                   BUCHANAN           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BUFFALO CREEK CONTINUING TO RISE, NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED
            ALONG THE CREEK BETWEEN STANLEY AND WINTHROP. PINE CREEK
            ALSO RISING RAPIDLY.

&&

WE

Local storm report, Jul 5, 7:31 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
731 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       IOWA CITY               41.66N 91.54W
07/05/2004  0.00 INCH        JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCHES OF RAIN ON RUNDELL STREET IN LAST 25 MINUTES.

&&

WE

Local storm report, Jul 5, 7:39 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
739 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE NOBLE              41.11N 91.56W
07/05/2004  1.00 INCH        HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

WE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 5, 8:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henry	35 min
Jul 5, 9:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Whiteside	38 min
Jul 5, 9:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Bureau, Henry	50 min
Jul 5, 7:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Cedar, Louisa, Muscatine	48 min
Jul 5, 7:57 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Buchanan	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2004 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.