Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
222 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION IS OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY THIS MORNING...AS
LOW CLOUDS...AVIATION FOG...DRIZZLE AND EVEN A SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE ENTERED THE CWA. THE STRONG UPPER LOW IS EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH PRESSURES FALLING IN THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP FROM SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  THIS PLACEMENT WILL HELP KEEP
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
ANY HEATING FROM WARM ADVECTION ALONE. THIS WILL ALSO AID IN
REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOIS.  (A GOOD THING SINCE THERE WOULD BE PLENTY TO WORRY ABOUT
IF THE SUN HEATED THINGS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S).

&&

.FORECAST...(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WHILE THE BEST LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN IOWA
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 2 AM...WILL FORCE CHANCE POPS IN
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS MORNING.  BY
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT
IOWA AND MISSOURI.  MODEL ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE
LOW TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT FORCING FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL CAPE WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THUS THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE HAIL.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LIMITS.  MUCH OF
THIS EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE WITH NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES...WITH
THE MAIN REASON FOR THUNDER BEING THE STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT AND
STRONG MOIST WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTH TO NEAR 70S SOUTH. WITH SOUTH WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF MUCH...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S IN MANY
AREAS.  BY LATE TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT WILL SWEEP INTO THE WESTERN
CWA...HELPING DECREASE THE CLOUDS AND END PRECIP.

SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
THE MIDWEST.  WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE MILD SATURDAY WITH THE STRONG MIXING (UPPER 60S)...AND
EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL..THE POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY PLEASANT FOR OCTOBER.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR QUIET WITH UPPER RIDGING INFLUENCING
THE REGION AS A STRONG TROF DIGS INTO THE WEST.  HAVE DELAYED PRECIP
CHANCES TIL THURSDAY AS THE TROF APPEARS TO BE JUST AS STRONG AS THE
CURRENT STORMS OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN ALL THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE MIDWEST LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
...ERVIN...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
508 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-231000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
508 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MIDWEST.  THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER EASTERN IOWA...WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES MAIN THREAT.  SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORMS SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER EASTERN IOWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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