Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 00Z, AND WILL TAKE WITH IT THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FUELING
SEVERE CONVECTION AT PRESS TIME. THE TRAILING SURFACE TROF WILL
SETTLE INTO OHIO OVERNIGHT WHILE WASHING OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AROUND
THE AREA, WET GROUND, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKY, FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND LAST A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
SOME PATCHY DENSE NEAR SUNRISE AROUND THE AREA.

WELL GET AT LEAST ONE DAY TO CATCH OUR BREATH AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS AROUND SE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER SYSTEM GATHERING ITSELF OVER WESTERN CANADA
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIG INTO THE DAKOTAS AND BRING A RESPECTABLE SURFACE LOW INTO NW
ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DRAW WARM AND HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION. THE 12Z ETA IS BALLPARKING CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 35 KT WINDS AROUND 500 MB. THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT BIG ENOUGH CAPE WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME THAT, AND ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING POPS AT THIS
POINT TO GET A BETTER LOOK AT THIS TREND, WHICH SHOWS A SUDDEN MOVE
TO THE NORTH THIS RUN, AND EVALUATE HOW MUCH ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING THE BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE DETAILS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE ROCKIES AND LESS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. SO FAR, THERE IS NOT A BIG IMPACT ON THE GOING
FORECAST FOR SE MICHIGAN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL INSTALL HIGH PRESSURE BY SATURDAY. IN
FACT, THE FRONT IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WE CAN REMOVE SHOWERS FROM
THE SATURDAY FORECAST, AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE OHIO VALLEY WAVE FOR
SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS SUGGEST THE LOWER HEIGHTS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND A TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD. THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT
FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT THIS HAS BEEN
PART OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER RECENT WEEKS, AND WOULD KEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BT

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1239 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-151100-
LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MONROE-OAKLAND-ST. CLAIR-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
1239 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE THE MAIN
HAZARD...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-151100-
BAY-GENESEE-HURON-LAPEER-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-TUSCOLA-
1239 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BRAVENDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
249 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             COHOCTAH                42.76N 83.95W
06/14/2004  0.88 INCH        LIVINGSTON         MI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
301 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             LINDEN                  42.82N 83.78W
06/14/2004  0.88 INCH        GENESEE            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
305 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     HAIL             5 N CLIO                43.25N 83.74W
06/14/2004  0.50 INCH        SAGINAW            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            25 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
317 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FENTON                  42.80N 83.71W
06/14/2004                   GENESEE            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BRANCH BROKEN OFF

&&

JB