Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
243 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT FORECAST PROBLEM IS TSTM CHANCE TONIGHT.  TSTMS DEVELOPING
OVER NC FA ATTM ALONG SFC TROF AND AREA OF CONVERGENCE.  AMS
UNSTABLE OVER FA. LIMITING FACTOR IS DEEP SHEAR WHICH IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE.  MODELS DON/T SEEM TO HANDLE SFC TROF WELL AND SHORT
TERM CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SFC FIELDS NOT VERY GOOD.  WILL FCST
DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE. MODERATE SB CAPE AND LOW SHEAR SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS
MULTICELL WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL.  MAYBE LIMITED
DOWNBURST POTIONTIAL.   WILL END PCPN NW SO SE AFTER TROF PASSAGE
AND AS AMS STABILIZES.  LACK OF LOW LVL JET SUPPORT TONIGHT NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THINKING BEST CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING.  MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF IA WHICH
ALSO SUPPORTS WEAKENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE LONGER TERM...UPPER PATTERN LOOKS RATHER FALL-LIKE WITH DEEP
UPPER TROF OVER LAKES AND IA IN PROLONGED N-NW FLOW.  FIRST SHOT OF
REAL COOL AIR MONDAY  NIGHT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT EARLY
FRIDAY.  WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS GOING MIDWEEK WITH PASSAGE OF
DISTURBANCE.  DO BELIEVE AMS WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH TO ONLY SUPPORT
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER ETA GUIDANCE.

IN THE LONG TERM (DAYS 6 AND 7)...RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  WILL GO DRY SINCE THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO BE
A FOCUS FOR TSTMS OTHER THAN GRADUAL WAA.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
852 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-046>050-061-062-091100-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT-
852 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA ALONG AND NORTH OF A SAC CITY...TO AMES...TO
GRINNELL.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE FOR HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR
LARGER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 3 PM UNTIL 7 PM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35...AND FROM 5 PM THROUGH 10 PM EAST OF INTERSTATE
35.

IAZ044-045-057>060-070>075-081>086-092>097-091100-
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
DAVIS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-
852 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DENISON...TO DES MOINES...TO
OSKALOOSA LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST BRUSH
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS MORNING.  ADDITIONAL STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR HAIL
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. THERE IS ALSO A SECONDARY THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 3 PM UNTIL 7 PM WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35...AND FROM 5 PM THROUGH 10 PM EAST OF INTERSTATE
35.

SMALL