Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
940 PM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

.DISCUSSION
SENT UPDATED ZONES SEVERAL MINUTES AGO.  ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMP AND CLOUD TRENDS.  STORMS OVER SDKTA APPEAR ELEVATED ATTM AND
LOOK TO BE WEAKING BUT THESE WILL DROP INTO IA AFT 08Z PER
EXTRAPOLATION AND FOLLOWING THE CORFIDI VECTORS.  LOOKING AT MAINLY
A WIND EVENT BY THE TIME IT ROLLS INTO OUR CWA THOUGH A REPORT OR
TWO OF HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE
MADE.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

IAZ004>007-015>017-031100-
CERRO GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 1 TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER...MAINLY FROM 10 PM TO 6 AM. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD LINGER UNTIL MID
MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS THE MASON CITY AREA. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF CARROLL AND DENISON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY
FROM 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-031100-
ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-POLK-
POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 92 IN THE SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 3 IN THE NORTH.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF MARSHALLTOWN. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP...THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE MOST
FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HOWEVER...MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD LINGER UNTIL MID
MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS THE WATERLOO AND TAMA AREAS. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF A JEFFERSON TO TAMA LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS MOST LIKELY FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY
MORNING.

IAZ081>086-092>097-031100-
ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WAYNE-
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL FROM
HIGHWAY 34 SOUTH.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS FROM 60 TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS COULD LINGER UNTIL MID
MORNING TUESDAY ACROSS THE OSKALOOSA AND OTTUMWA AREAS. OTHERWISE...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM
TUESDAY MORNING.

JUNGBLUTH